According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 14th to 18th, the domestic aggregated MDI market accelerated its decline, with an average price of 15116 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 14300 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 5.4% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 15.64%. There is a strong pessimistic atmosphere in the domestic MDI aggregation market during the week, and there is a strong willingness to ship at low prices. The on-site supply is sufficient, but the demand is light, resulting in a wide decline in the aggregated MDI market.
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On the supply side, the 1.2 million tons/year MDI plant of Wanhua Ningbo in China began rotating between two sets of plants on March 20th, while other plants were running smoothly. BASF and Huntsman have maintenance plans in May. There is a maintenance plan for the 400000 tons/year MDI plant in Tosa, Japan in May.
On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: After the continuous decline in the pure benzene market, there has been a slight rebound in prices recently, but due to the uncertainty of tariff policies, the future market is not optimistic. Raw material aniline: Aniline continues to fall sharply, with mainstream prices ranging from 7500-7600 yuan/ton. The overall shipment of aniline factory is not smooth, with accumulated inventory and insufficient confidence in the field.
On the demand side, downstream demand follow-up is poor, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the market is in a stage of oversupply.
Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is greatly affected by policies, and the mentality of industry players is relatively pessimistic. At the same time, under the further pressure of weak supply and demand, the price of aggregated MDI has fallen to a low level. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak trend in the short term and the decline will decrease.
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