According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market experienced a volatile decline in February 2025. From March 1st to 31st, the domestic butadiene market price dropped from 11462.5 yuan/ton to 11000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.03% during the period.

Early month: At the beginning of the month, the butadiene market continued to show a weak trend, and the overall supply in the spot market was loose. The spot market was under pressure, and although the holders had a bullish attitude, the market atmosphere was difficult to support. The demand side synthetic rubber market trend remained weak within the week, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the butadiene market continued to delay its weak operation this week.
Mid month: The butadiene market first fell and then rose, but overall it remained weak. At the beginning of the week, the overall trading trend continued from the previous period, and the market was weak. Later, as the downstream synthetic rubber futures market began to improve and mainstream enterprises in East China temporarily shut down, the dual factors led to holders holding up prices and being reluctant to sell, driving the atmosphere of the spot market to improve and market prices to slightly rebound.
Late month: The performance of the domestic butadiene market remains weak, with a slight decrease in spot market prices and a weak market operation. This week, the spot market supply is relatively loose, and the supply side is slightly short. On the demand side, the synthetic rubber market has slightly weakened, and there is a need to replenish raw materials as needed. The mentality of the spot market is weak due to weak supply and demand, and the overall market operation is weak.
Cost wise: The international oil price trend in March has declined. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.36 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.76 per barrel. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the United States will also ease its oil sanctions against Russia, causing international oil prices to fall. Overall, the trend of international oil prices has declined.
Supply side: The listed prices of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec have overall declined this month, with a price of 11100 yuan/ton as of the 31st. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.
Demand side: The butadiene rubber market in March first fell and then rose, with an overall downward trend. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 13920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% from 14090 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, and the low point during the cycle was 13830 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly fallen, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased compared to the end of February, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased; In March, downstream tires started operating at a high level, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of March 28th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 13800-14100 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: In terms of supply, there will be less maintenance of butadiene enterprises in the near future, and the subsequent arrival at ports will be better. The market expects good supply of butadiene, but the supply side is relatively empty. In terms of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has recently shown weak performance, with demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, the supply and demand performance of the butadiene market is bearish, and it is expected to be mainly stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.