Aluminum prices strengthen in February

Aluminum prices strengthened in February. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20570 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.76% from the market average price of 20213.33 yuan/ton on February 1.

Recently, aluminum prices have continued their strong trend from January, with a slight rebound. However, the price of its main raw material alumina continued to plummet, with prices continuing to decline in February.

The trend of alumina prices and aluminum prices deviated in February, and the cost support for aluminum prices in the early stage weakened, resulting in a recovery of aluminum plant profits.

Basic supply and demand of aluminum ingots in February

Supply side: As of the end of January 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.7 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 43.51 million tons and an industry operating rate of 95.2%; In February, domestic production capacity remained high, and Sichuan gradually resumed production after reducing production capacity in the early stages. Most are expected to achieve full capacity operation by the end of March. A loss making electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Guangxi has also resumed production recently, with a total resumption capacity of around 300000 tons per year.

Inventory: As of February 27, 2025, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in China was 883000 tons, up from 661000 tons on February 6, with a cumulative inventory of 222000 tons.

Overseas News: In 2025, the United States announced a 25% tariff increase, and there are expectations of a loosening in Russian aluminum exports.

Aluminum ingot prices are expected to continue their strong trend in March

Downstream demand is expected to continue to rebound as the gold, silver, and four industries approach, with the operating rates of profiles, alloys, and other processes showing some improvement. Although the inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to accumulate after the holiday, with the consumer side making efforts, there is a possibility of a turning point in domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory in the short term.

Russian aluminum plans to resume exports to the United States, which may lead to a decrease in imports to China and offset the increase in production brought by the resumption of some domestic aluminum plants. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingots in March will continue the strong trend in February