According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the price of lead 1 # was 17002 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50% compared to the lead price of 16750 yuan/ton on February 1st.

This week’s market analysis

The lead market in February mainly showed a gradual recovery of supply and demand after the Spring Festival. In early February, both the supply and demand sides of the market showed a flat performance, and the lead price fluctuated mainly due to macroeconomic news and financial push.

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, both the supply and demand sides of the lead market are gradually recovering. On the supply side, the production of primary lead and regenerated lead is gradually recovering, but the pace of regenerated lead production is relatively slow, which also affects the trend of lead prices to some extent.

Demand side

After the festival, lead battery enterprises will gradually resume production. Due to the limited reserve before the festival, it is expected that after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, there will be a demand for replenishment, which will help to digest the original lead inventory. However, it should be noted that the current lead-acid battery market has weak terminal consumption, and there has been no significant recovery in production enterprise orders. Lead consumption is still supported by rigid demand. ‌

As the festive atmosphere gradually dissipates, lead-acid battery companies are gradually resuming production. Since these enterprises have relatively limited stock of raw materials before the festival, it is expected that they will face some demand for stock replenishment after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). This demand will help to digest the current backlog of primary lead inventory in the market, thereby providing some support for lead prices.

However, it is worth noting that although lead-acid battery companies are resuming work and production, the current terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market is not strong. The order situation of production enterprises has not shown obvious signs of improvement, and the consumption of lead is still mainly based on essential needs. This means that although the demand for replenishment may have a positive impact on lead prices, the weakness of end consumption may still limit the upward space for lead prices.

comprehensive analysis

The current lead industry chain has entered the stage of comprehensive resumption of production, with upstream and downstream production capacity synchronously increasing. With the recovery of production capacity utilization rate in primary lead smelters and the improvement of supply of recycled lead raw materials and waste batteries, the market presents a dual growth pattern of supply and demand. Follow up market trends, pay attention to the inventory situation of lead ingots.