According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly declined recently (1.17-1.23). As of January 23, the spot rubber market in China was around 16640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% from 16908 yuan/ton on January 17. Recently, there has been a narrow adjustment in raw material prices; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase slightly; As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking is gradually coming to an end, and market transactions are sluggish. In addition, the Shanghai rubber market has fluctuated and weakened this week, driving the natural rubber spot market to slightly decline.

In January, foreign natural rubber was in the peak season for rubber cutting, and coupled with suitable weather, the supply of natural rubber raw materials abroad was sufficient, but the domestic market was in a period of cutting suspension. Supported by domestic demand, raw material prices stabilized at a high level. As of January 23rd, the price of Thai glue was 68.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than 68.30 baht/kg on the 17th.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of January 19, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 520700 tons, an increase of 16400 tons compared to the previous period.

Supply and demand side: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream businesses are gradually taking a break, resulting in a gradual reduction in natural rubber inventory and sluggish market transactions.

Market forecast: The supply of foreign raw materials is gradually increasing in the current season, but the domestic market is in a period of suspension, which provides some support for natural rubber; As the Spring Festival approaches and stocking ends, market transactions will gradually decline; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.