According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 16th to December 23rd, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 10450 yuan/ton to 10837.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.71% during the cycle. This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise, and the available supply of goods in the spot market was generally tight. Holders of goods had a strong mentality of raising prices, and the spot market quotation was overall upward. Boosted by this news, spot market offers generally rose. But as prices continue to rise, downstream delivery capabilities gradually decline. Overall, the downstream market currently has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market will first rise and then stabilize this week. Sinopec will raise the price by 400 yuan/ton to 10900 yuan/ton during the cycle. As of December 23rd, the delivery price in Shandong region is 11250 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost aspect: Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The protection of OPEC+production reduction atmosphere still exists, but the pessimistic demand will still suppress oil prices. Overall, the international crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of December 20th, the settlement price of the main international crude oil futures contract was $69.46 per barrel, an increase of $0.08 or 0.1%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.94 per barrel, an increase of $0.06 or 0.1%.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 10900 yuan/ton as of the 23rd, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 10500 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

The 90000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit of Satellite Chemical is operating normally, with a reduction of 100 yuan/ton and an execution of 11000 yuan/ton.

Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with a reduction of 100 yuan/ton and an implementation of 11000 yuan/ton.

The 50000 tons/year butadiene unit of Dongming Petrochemical is operating normally, with 280 tons exported and a base price of 11300 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the rubber market has been operating steadily with a slight weakness this week, and there has been little change in market prices. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise significantly, styrene prices have slightly adjusted, and the cost center of styrene butadiene rubber has slightly increased. Downstream all steel tire production has slightly increased; The price fluctuation of styrene butadiene rubber is limited.

Market forecast: In terms of supply, the overall supply of butadiene has been tight in the near future, with fewer port sources and still strong market sentiment. From the perspective of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, and due to poor profits, production has slightly declined, providing strong support for the butadiene market. Overall, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for the butadiene market to continue to rise. Market sentiment tends to be wait-and-see, and it is expected that market prices will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the production of new facilities and the arrival of ports.