According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5375 yuan/ton to 5332 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 21.58%. The fatigue of the domestic ethanol market is difficult to change, and the market lacks positive news support, resulting in continued weak downstream demand. Holders of goods are experiencing slow shipments, resulting in overall high pressure on shipments. Manufacturers are under pressure to sell at a discount, causing ethanol prices to fluctuate and fall.

On the cost side, the price of raw material corn has fluctuated and stabilized, with overall corn prices remaining stable. Some deep processing enterprises have made narrow price adjustments, while the price range remains stable. After the price fell, farmers’ reluctance to sell increased, and the amount of grain purchased decreased. At present, the overall willingness to store grain in the trade sector is still weak, and the effective supply in the market is relatively sufficient. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable with small fluctuations. The Fukang Fourth Line, Heilongjiang Shenglong, and Dongfeng Hualiang facilities have resumed production, and the operating load is gradually increasing. Some areas may see an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, the terminal consumption of Baijiu has little change, and the demand side support is limited; Downstream ethyl acetate has heard that Henan Ruibai has a restart plan, with a slight increase in operating rate expected, which may increase the consumption of raw material ethanol. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

In the future market forecast, the supply-demand game will become more apparent under the expectation of new production capacity shipments. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly operate weakly and steadily.