In September 2024, the domestic adhesive short fiber market showed an upward trend, with the cost of upstream raw material dissolution pulp remaining firm and stable, and cost support still remaining; The manufacturer’s inventory is not high; Downstream personnel will follow up on cotton yarn as needed. At the beginning of the month, manufacturers signed a new round of orders, and downstream manufacturers inquired about orders and prices one after another. With the interweaving of information on the market, there was a certain confidence in the “Golden Nine”, and manufacturers gradually raised prices by 100-200 yuan/ton; In mid to late month, manufacturers mainly execute orders, and adhesive short fibers operate steadily.
| Thiourea |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the trend of the adhesive short fiber market is expected to rise in September 2024. As of September 30th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.04%.
Cost side support remains stable
In September, the market price of the main raw material dissolved pulp in the upstream remained firm and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolved pulp is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of broad-leaved pulp in the external market is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The cost side of the adhesive short fiber market is supported by favorable factors and remains stable.
Stable supply, low inventory
The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.
The demand has not shown significant improvement
Entering the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there are no obvious signs of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding onto essential orders, and the demand side recovery is not as expected.
Downstream cotton yarn market
In September 2024, the price of cotton yarn slightly increased with the rise of viscose staple fiber. As of September 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17575 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.15%.
Future forecast
The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber remains firm and stable, with relatively tight supply in the market. In October, there is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but there will be no significant improvement in the short-term demand side. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers will mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with little price fluctuation. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13800 yuan/ton.
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