Fall first and then rise in August
| Thiourea |
The price of ethylene glycol first fell and then rose in August. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4678.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from August 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:
The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4600-4795 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4600 yuan/ton.
On August 30, 2024, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port was close to low and far from high. The paper cargo basis quotation for the 01 contract this week ranges from -1 to+3; The basis of forward contracts is relatively strong, with a base price of 12-18 yuan/ton in September and 14-22 yuan/ton in October.
On August 30th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4250-4350 yuan/ton, including tax.
On August 29, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $564/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $556/ton. The domestic landed price has slightly increased.
List of August Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Data
As of August 30, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 673300 tons, an increase of 57000 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 616300 tons on August 1.
We will first go to the warehouse and then accumulate inventory within the month, mainly due to the concentrated arrival of goods at the port last week, resulting in accumulated inventory data at the port. This week’s expectations for the port have declined, leading to a decrease in inventory data.
Reasons for the rebound of ethylene glycol prices in August:
Negative expectations on the supply side of market transactions
On the supply side, the scale of production reduction in ethylene glycol plants has recently expanded, partly due to the favorable price difference of EO conversion, achieving production capacity conversion, and partly due to planned shutdown and maintenance. On the demand side, downstream demand is expected to be strong during the peak season, with a turning point in the peak season for gold and silver, and a slight rebound in downstream operating rates.
Future expectations
At present, the absolute amount of explicit inventory in ports is still relatively low. This provides some support for the price of ethylene glycol.
It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will experience strong fluctuations in the short term, but the price ceiling will narrow.
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