According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 15th to July 22nd, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 13125 yuan/ton to 13112.5 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.1% during the period. This week, the overall stability of the butadiene market is relatively weak, and downstream market demand has remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment. The overall market performance is weak, dragging down market quotes and reducing downstream market enthusiasm. There is a lack of actual transaction support. As of July 22, the self pickup price of East China’s butadiene diene is around 12950 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 50-100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The ex factory price of Sinopec remains stable at 13200 yuan/ton, while prices of other refineries have slightly decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the short-term supply and demand game of crude oil will continue to play a role, and the supply side will be supported by the geopolitical situation and OPEC’s production control. There is uncertainty on the demand side in the future, and in the short term, there will be some pressure on demand due to extreme weather conditions in the United States; In addition, the condition during peak driving season still needs further inspection. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to further developments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, which will provide directional guidance for the future demand for crude oil. Overall, under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and the amplitude may increase with the frequent occurrence of market news factors. As of July 19th, international crude oil futures have plummeted. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.64 per barrel, a decrease of $2.66 or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $2.48 or 2.9%.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 13200 yuan/ton. Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s Unit 2 have not been restarted, while Dushanzi Petrochemical has been shut down for maintenance. The comprehensive operating rate in China has not changed much this week, and the supply of butadiene is relatively stable.

Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 30000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 400 tons sold at a bidding price of 12500 yuan/ton.

The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th, and is scheduled to restart at the end of August, with the quotation suspended.

Dalian Hengli’s 140000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating stably, with normal export supply at a price of 13060 yuan/ton.

Shenhua Ning Coal’s 64000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is operating stably, with a small amount of supply for export at a price of 12480 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The downstream synthetic rubber market continued to weaken this week, with terminal demand maintaining rigid procurement. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, and prices of styrene butadiene and butadiene rubber have slightly declined this week. The overall intention of downstream procurement is weak, and we are currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The overall transaction volume is more in line with demand, and the market support is relatively weak. The inquiry mentality is slightly cautious.

On Friday, July 19th, the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was mixed: the FOB price in South Korea was reported at $1545-1555 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton; China CFR reported 1555-1565 US dollars/ton, unchanged; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1170-1180/ton, down $20/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1065-1075 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

Market forecast: Currently, the production of butadiene is relatively stable, with no significant changes in the supply side, and the overall situation remains relatively stable. From the perspective of demand, downstream demand has always maintained strong support and price trends are weak. Downstream synthetic rubber enterprises have been affected by the decline in profits, and their purchasing enthusiasm has been significantly weakened recently. As a result, the market atmosphere is more wait-and-see. In the absence of obvious news on the supply and demand side, it is expected that the butadiene market will maintain a stable and weak trend in the short term, and there may still be room for slight downward exploration.