According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall lead market (7.5-7.12) has declined this week. The average domestic market price was 19640 yuan/ton last week and 19480 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 0.81%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall. The overall market trend has been strong recently, with the market rising for four consecutive months. The lead ingot market has seen more recent gains than losses.

Macroscopically, data released by the US Department of Labor shows that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in June was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%; The core CPI in June was 3.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.4% and the previous value of 3.4%, indicating a comprehensive easing of price pressure. Federal Reserve’s Gulsby stated that the inflation report for June was excellent, and based on the data, a rate cut or a series of rate cuts could be considered. Any decision regarding interest rates will not take into account political factors. There is no need to panic about the unemployment situation, the job market is stable. As inflation decreases, maintaining interest rates unchanged means that the Federal Reserve is tightening policy. The labor market is cooling down, but still strong, and this does not seem like the beginning of an economic recession. Financial conditions are quite restrictive.

In terms of supply and demand: The tight supply situation in the mining sector has not been effectively improved, with a significant reduction in production and shutdown of primary and recycled lead smelting enterprises, a phased reduction in lead ingot supply, a low overall market volume, and sustained monthly processing fees in China. The price of waste batteries remains firm, and recycled lead enterprises in Anhui Province have reduced production. The maintenance of the primary lead refinery was completed in July, and it is expected to increase production by 20000 tons. On the demand side, downstream battery companies are under pressure to reduce production, resulting in a slight decline in operating rates. Some battery manufacturers have issued price increase notices.

Market outlook: Lead futures are running weakly, with recent deliveries and increased reluctance to sell, while individual quotes are showing strong upward momentum. Downstream battery companies urgently need to replenish their inventory. Under the support of tight supply and cost, the short-term downward space for lead prices is limited, but attention should be paid to the impact of imported lead inflows on the market.

Industry data

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 402.6 GWh in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 318.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%; The cumulative sales of other batteries reached 84.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 137.3%.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in June, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 963000 units, a month on month increase of 12.5% and a year-on-year increase of 32.2%; The export of new energy vehicles was 86000 units, a month on month decrease of 13.2% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. From January to June, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.339 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%; The export of new energy vehicles reached 605000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%.

On July 11th, the basic metal index was 1352 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 16.34% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 110.59% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

On July 11th, the color index was 1238 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 19.51% from the highest point of 1538 points during the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 103.95% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)