According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market rose this week (May 13th to May 20th), and the market price in East China was at 14500 yuan/ton on May 20th, up 0.69%.
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In terms of manganese ore: This week, the Tianjin Port manganese ore market has been consolidating and operating, with slightly chaotic transaction prices. There are some lower prices for shipments in the market. In terms of prices, South African semi carbonates are quoted at 52-54 yuan/ton, Gabon is quoted at 60-61 yuan/ton, and Australia is quoted at 62-63 yuan/ton. However, some miners are bullish and still maintain high prices. This week, the trading volume of Qinzhou Port manganese ore has decreased, and factories have significantly lowered prices. Traders have maintained consolidation in their offers, but actual transaction prices have slightly fallen. The quotation for semi carbonated carbon at Qinzhou Port is 53 yuan/ton, the transaction price for Australian seeds is 56 yuan/ton, and the quotation for Australian blocks is 60 yuan/ton.
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the trend of the electrolytic manganese market has been relatively stable recently, and the market has started to rise since May.
Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.
This week, the electrolytic manganese market only saw a slight increase, which has slowed down compared to the previous period. Currently, the mainstream market price is between 12900-13000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. With the slowdown of market growth, the market atmosphere is weak. Due to the significant increase in prices in the previous period, the overall downstream purchasing intention is relatively low, and the market negotiation situation is weak. The purchasing party holds a wait-and-see attitude. In the future, there is a lack of downstream support, and it is expected that the market will continue to face significant upward resistance in the short term, with a stable, medium to strong trend. The market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance.
Related data:
This week, the silicon and manganese market has been volatile, showing a trend of first rising and then falling, with market sentiment slightly falling. Due to the significant decline in silicon and manganese market this week, steel mills also have a fear of heights, and manufacturers are actively shipping higher. In order to avoid the risk of inventory accumulation, there is no outflow of low-priced goods, and manufacturers are cautious. According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on May 17th, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 7900-8000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 7958 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.34% from last week.
Steel recruitment situation:
The new round of electrolytic metal manganese bidding for Fushun Special Steel has been launched, with a quantity of 130 tons. The quotation is as of May 16, 2024, and the delivery date is June 16, 2024.
Ansteel Lianzhong started the bidding for electrolytic manganese sheets in June 2024, with a bidding quantity of 1500 tons. The minimum bidding quantity for this bidding is 300 tons, and the delivery date is June 25, 2024.
Jiangsu Shagang started the bidding for metal manganese ingots from May to June 2024. The bidding deadline is May 13, 2024, and the delivery date is required to be before June 30, 2024.
Industry data:
On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).
On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).
According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.
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