The butadiene rubber market in March first fell and then rose, with an overall decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 13920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% from 14090 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, and the low point during the cycle was 13830 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly fallen, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased compared to the end of February, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased; In March, downstream tires started operating at a high level, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of March 28th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 13800-14100 yuan/ton.

Since March, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 28th, the price of butadiene was 11000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03% from 11462 yuan/ton at the beginning of March.
The construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants in March showed a slight increase compared to February, with an overall construction rate of around 6.90%. At present, Zhejiang Chuanhua’s 150000 tons/year high Shun butadiene rubber plant will be shut down for maintenance for 25 days starting from March 26th. In addition, Shandong Yihua’s 100000 tons/year Shun butadiene rubber plant has maintenance plans in the later stage, and the supply of Shun butadiene rubber is expected to decrease.
Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of March 21st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate weakly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; The temporary stability of downstream construction provides some support for Shunding Rubber. With some equipment maintenance plans in the later stage, the supply pressure of Shunding Rubber is expected to slightly decrease. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding Rubber market will consolidate in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China has slightly declined this week. As of March 21st, the average market price in East China was 12100 yuan/ton, and as of March 17th, the average price was 12200 yuan/ton. Within the week, it fell by 0.82%, and compared to the same period last year, it fell by 27.11%.

This week, the TDI market is operating at a low level. There is sufficient supply on site, and traders offer prices according to the market, with downstream demand being the main focus. Intermediaries have a strong willingness to sell goods, and the focus of transactions is trending downwards. The lack of positive news in the market has boosted confidence among industry players, dragging down prices to continue falling.

Supply side: The source of goods is filled quickly and the supply is loose.

On the cost side: The price of toluene has fallen, and port inventories in East China are relatively high. Due to the sluggish local liquid chemical market, prices have generally declined during the cycle.

In terms of future analysis, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the TDI market currently lacks real order support, and downstream stocking willingness is not strong. With a mentality of buying up rather than buying down, it is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 10th to March 17th, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 11200 yuan/ton to 11037.5 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.45% during the period. This week, the butadiene market first fell and then rose, but overall it is still weak. At the beginning of the week, the overall trading trend continued from the previous period, and the market was weak. Later, as the downstream synthetic rubber futures market began to improve and mainstream enterprises in East China temporarily shut down, the dual factors led to holders holding up prices and being reluctant to sell, driving the atmosphere of the spot market to improve and market prices to slightly rebound.

Cost wise: The crude oil price trend has been weak during this period. As of the 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $66.55 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $69.88 per barrel. The international oil price trend has declined. As of the 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $66.55 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $69.88 per barrel. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the US oil sanctions against Russia will also be relaxed, and international oil prices will fall due to this impact.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 11100 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 200 yuan/ton this week.

Demand side: The domestic synthetic rubber market in this cycle first fell and then rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on March 14th, the styrene butadiene rubber market in the northwest region slightly rose, and the synthetic rubber futures market strengthened, driving up the spot market price. Currently, downstream inquiries are cautious, market transactions are flat, and supplier offers have been raised by around 100 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of Jihua 1502 is 14200 yuan/ton

Market forecast: The recent trend of the crude oil market remains weak, providing insufficient support for the market. The recent temporary parking of mainstream enterprises in East China has provided some support for the spot market in terms of supply, but overall, the inventory of butadiene in the market is relatively high. In terms of demand, downstream procurement has been biased towards rigid demand recently, with no significant positive boost. Overall, the favorable support for the butadiene market is insufficient, and it is expected to maintain a slight oscillation trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 10th to 14th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5307 yuan/ton to 5300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 15.54%. The price of edible ethanol in the domestic market fluctuates narrowly, and the supply and demand are balanced. In some regions, with strong support from corn on the cost side, production companies have raised their quotations.

In terms of cost, corn prices are generally running strong, and the current market trade grain prices are actively increasing. At present, the market quotation is relatively high, and downstream enterprises are slightly active in spot delivery, with orders mainly signed in the distant months. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

The supply side has limited fluctuations, and there is currently no maintenance plan for the biological fermentation equipment. The on-site supply side is stable and organized, and the cassava ethanol plant equipment is operating stably. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, from the demand side, Baijiu consumption support is limited; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.

In the future forecast, the overall inventory of the alcohol market supply side is controllable, the price of raw material corn continues to fluctuate strongly, the cost support is strong, and the mentality of production enterprises is still acceptable. Limited follow-up on the demand side, with a focus on stocking up for urgent needs, resulting in a mediocre transaction atmosphere. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will remain stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cotton yarn market has been running weakly this week, and cotton prices continue to decline, with cotton yarn prices falling along with cotton prices. As of March 7th, the reference spot price for 21S pure cotton ring spinning in Shandong Province, China is around 22600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; The spot reference price for 32S pure cotton ring spinning is around 24100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

Market Overview: As we enter March, the textile market continues to be sluggish and there has been no peak season. Some textile companies have slightly reduced their orders compared to the previous period. Currently, textile companies have slightly increased their production, and yarn mills have accumulated inventory. Downstream fabric factories have limited orders and are basically purchasing on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, coupled with the decline in cotton prices this week, some textile companies have lowered prices to promote orders.

Startup improvement: This week, the startup rate of textile enterprises has slightly increased. Currently, about 90% of factories in Xinjiang are operating, while more than 70-80% are operating in mainland China. The operating situation is good. As of March 6th, the startup load of mainstream textile enterprises is 76.2%, with a month on month increase of 2.14%. It is expected that there will be little change in the startup rate next week

High inventory: This week, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises has slightly decreased, and the limited number of new orders from textile enterprises is still mainly based on pre shipment orders. The overall textile market is sluggish, and there is no peak season phenomenon. Some textile enterprises have started to accumulate inventory. As of March 6th, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions was 37.2 days, with a week on week decrease of 1.33%. It is expected that inventory may increase next week.

Raw material volatility: ICE US cotton fluctuated and fell within the week, the macro situation escalated, the market was concerned about future demand, and the pessimistic sentiment led to a decline in the market. The imposition of tariffs again resulted in insufficient follow-up orders from textile companies, and the beginning of the gold, silver, and fourth periods fell short of expectations. It is expected that the cotton market will experience a wide range of fluctuations in the near future.

Weak demand: The overall atmosphere of the cotton fabric market is basically the same as last week. The increase in clothing orders is average, with slightly better performance in orders for coarse and thick fabrics. However, there are few orders for export, and strict traceability requirements are required. The home textile orders are relatively good, and the production entities are mainly based on regular export orders. The production and sales of the textile factory are maintained, and inventory has slightly decreased. Due to the scarcity of new orders, weaving factories tend to be cautious.

Market forecast: Currently, the recovery of terminal consumption is weak and orders are scarce. Profit is in an inverted state, and the pure cotton yarn market is facing a dual dilemma of high cost and low demand, coupled with uncertainty in trade policies and weak market support. In the short term, if the orders during the peak sales season of “gold, silver, and fourth” do not improve, cotton yarn prices are likely to continue to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, at the end of February, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2530 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.64%. On February 13th, it rose to a monthly high of 2572 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.36% from the beginning of the month; On February 22nd, it fell to a monthly low of 2410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from the beginning of the month.

The overall range of dichloromethane market fluctuated in February. There is a slight fluctuation in the operation of domestic methane chloride plants, and the supply of dichloromethane is relatively stable; In February, the price of methanol, a raw material for dichloromethane, weakened, while the price of liquid chlorine slightly increased, resulting in weak overall cost support; Before the Spring Festival, there was a significant destocking of dichloromethane enterprises, and after the holiday, enterprises raised their prices and offered to buy. However, downstream production was low after the holiday, and demand for dichloromethane at the end of the month was light. The inventory of dichloromethane enterprises was under pressure, and they lowered prices and shipped goods. Currently, inventory has eased, and with the addition of enterprise equipment load reduction plans, prices gradually rebounded at the end of the month.

In terms of supply, there was a narrow fluctuation in the start-up of domestic methane chloride plants in February, with a start-up rate of around 70%. In March, some enterprise plants were operated with reduced load. Current operation status of methane chloride unit in the enterprise:

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol supply has slightly decreased, and the methanol market has experienced narrow fluctuations and adjustments. The upcoming spring inspection is about to begin, and the supply and demand pattern in mainland China is expected to continue to improve. As of February 28th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2634.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% from the beginning of the month. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is relatively low, and market transactions have increased within the month. There is an expectation of an increase in liquid chlorine exports.

On the demand side, downstream industry demand is gradually improving. Leading refrigerant companies raised their prices for various product models by 1000-2000 yuan/ton on the 26th. The export of household appliances remains unchanged and the domestic trade in policy continues to stimulate demand. The production and scheduling of air conditioners in March continued to grow steadily, with R32 operating steadily, moderately, and strongly.

Business analysts believe that the expected improvement in raw material supply and demand is positive, and the expected decrease in the supply of dichloromethane units due to load reduction is decreasing. The refrigerant market continues to rise, and demand is gradually improving. It is expected that the overall dichloromethane market will operate positively in March.

Aluminum prices strengthen in February

Aluminum prices strengthened in February. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20570 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.76% from the market average price of 20213.33 yuan/ton on February 1.

Recently, aluminum prices have continued their strong trend from January, with a slight rebound. However, the price of its main raw material alumina continued to plummet, with prices continuing to decline in February.

The trend of alumina prices and aluminum prices deviated in February, and the cost support for aluminum prices in the early stage weakened, resulting in a recovery of aluminum plant profits.

Basic supply and demand of aluminum ingots in February

Supply side: As of the end of January 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.7 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 43.51 million tons and an industry operating rate of 95.2%; In February, domestic production capacity remained high, and Sichuan gradually resumed production after reducing production capacity in the early stages. Most are expected to achieve full capacity operation by the end of March. A loss making electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Guangxi has also resumed production recently, with a total resumption capacity of around 300000 tons per year.

Inventory: As of February 27, 2025, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in China was 883000 tons, up from 661000 tons on February 6, with a cumulative inventory of 222000 tons.

Overseas News: In 2025, the United States announced a 25% tariff increase, and there are expectations of a loosening in Russian aluminum exports.

Aluminum ingot prices are expected to continue their strong trend in March

Downstream demand is expected to continue to rebound as the gold, silver, and four industries approach, with the operating rates of profiles, alloys, and other processes showing some improvement. Although the inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to accumulate after the holiday, with the consumer side making efforts, there is a possibility of a turning point in domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory in the short term.

Russian aluminum plans to resume exports to the United States, which may lead to a decrease in imports to China and offset the increase in production brought by the resumption of some domestic aluminum plants. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingots in March will continue the strong trend in February