1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash rose on February 26th, with a market average of 1460 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% compared to the previous trading day’s price of 1420 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 2.28% compared to the beginning of the month. On February 26th, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 74.87, an increase of 2.05 points from yesterday, a decrease of 60.41% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 18.56% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

On February 26th, the soda ash market saw a strong upward trend. On the demand side, the terminal market prices have decreased, and the purchasing demand is weak, which has limited support for soda ash; On the supply side, the operating rate of soda ash is relatively high, and the market supply of goods is stable. However, some devices on site have maintenance plans, and the expected supply of soda ash is reduced. Manufacturers have a strong intention to increase prices, and under the guidance of supplier information, soda ash companies have raised their quotations.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices were lowered on February 26th, with a market average price of 16.15 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.92% compared to the previous trading day’s price of 16.30 yuan/square meter. The glass market equipment has not changed much, the production has remained stable, downstream replenishment demand is poor, the market trading atmosphere is weak, glass inventory has accumulated, and market prices are running weakly.

In the future forecast, although there are maintenance expectations for domestic soda ash, the utilization rate of on-site production capacity remains high, with limited positive support. At the same time, the downstream glass market is weak, and there is insufficient support for soda ash demand, resulting in a supply-demand game in the market. It is expected that the short-term soda ash market will remain stagnant, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 21st, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market in Shandong was 9175 yuan/ton. Compared with February 15th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 9200 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (2.15-2.21), the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China, has experienced a narrow downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the cyclohexanone market remained stable, with decent support on the cost side and a relatively stable supply side. Downstream demand for essential purchases led to the consolidation and operation of the cyclohexanone market. As the weekend approaches, downstream demand is gradually slowing down, and some cyclohexanone factories have reduced their cyclohexanone shipment prices by 50-100 yuan/ton to maintain low inventory levels. On February 21st, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong, China was around 9150-9400 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: This week, the cost side raw material pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone. On February 21st, the reference price of pure benzene was 7829 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.66% compared to February 1st (7553 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, most of the on-site inquiries for cyclohexanone are for essential purchases, and the mentality of the industry is average. The transmission between supply and demand is weak and constant. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the price of lead 1 # was 17002 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50% compared to the lead price of 16750 yuan/ton on February 1st.

This week’s market analysis

The lead market in February mainly showed a gradual recovery of supply and demand after the Spring Festival. In early February, both the supply and demand sides of the market showed a flat performance, and the lead price fluctuated mainly due to macroeconomic news and financial push.

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, both the supply and demand sides of the lead market are gradually recovering. On the supply side, the production of primary lead and regenerated lead is gradually recovering, but the pace of regenerated lead production is relatively slow, which also affects the trend of lead prices to some extent.

Demand side

After the festival, lead battery enterprises will gradually resume production. Due to the limited reserve before the festival, it is expected that after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, there will be a demand for replenishment, which will help to digest the original lead inventory. However, it should be noted that the current lead-acid battery market has weak terminal consumption, and there has been no significant recovery in production enterprise orders. Lead consumption is still supported by rigid demand. ‌

As the festive atmosphere gradually dissipates, lead-acid battery companies are gradually resuming production. Since these enterprises have relatively limited stock of raw materials before the festival, it is expected that they will face some demand for stock replenishment after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). This demand will help to digest the current backlog of primary lead inventory in the market, thereby providing some support for lead prices.

However, it is worth noting that although lead-acid battery companies are resuming work and production, the current terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market is not strong. The order situation of production enterprises has not shown obvious signs of improvement, and the consumption of lead is still mainly based on essential needs. This means that although the demand for replenishment may have a positive impact on lead prices, the weakness of end consumption may still limit the upward space for lead prices.

comprehensive analysis

The current lead industry chain has entered the stage of comprehensive resumption of production, with upstream and downstream production capacity synchronously increasing. With the recovery of production capacity utilization rate in primary lead smelters and the improvement of supply of recycled lead raw materials and waste batteries, the market presents a dual growth pattern of supply and demand. Follow up market trends, pay attention to the inventory situation of lead ingots.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been running steadily this week. On February 10th, the market price of aniline was 9162 yuan/ton, and on February 14th, the price was 9162 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, a decrease of 16.61% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market has been in a state of stagnation and consolidation, with weak downstream demand and increased inventory in some companies, resulting in a weakened willingness to raise prices. Some factories will be temporarily shut down during the week, which will have a relatively small impact on the market. Under the weak supply-demand situation, the aniline market is in a state of stagnation and consolidation.

Cost aspect: Pure benzene has shown a strong trend this week, with good shipments from Shandong’s local refineries. Shandong Lihua Yi’s 200000 ton pure benzene plant has begun planned maintenance, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price has increased by 100 to 7750 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene has risen, and the pressure on aniline costs has increased.

3、 Future expectations

The current market cost and sales pressure of aniline coexist, and under the influence of long and short factors, it is expected that there is a high possibility of short-term pressure on the market to push up aniline.