According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly declined recently (1.17-1.23). As of January 23, the spot rubber market in China was around 16640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% from 16908 yuan/ton on January 17. Recently, there has been a narrow adjustment in raw material prices; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase slightly; As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking is gradually coming to an end, and market transactions are sluggish. In addition, the Shanghai rubber market has fluctuated and weakened this week, driving the natural rubber spot market to slightly decline.

 

Thiourea

In January, foreign natural rubber was in the peak season for rubber cutting, and coupled with suitable weather, the supply of natural rubber raw materials abroad was sufficient, but the domestic market was in a period of cutting suspension. Supported by domestic demand, raw material prices stabilized at a high level. As of January 23rd, the price of Thai glue was 68.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than 68.30 baht/kg on the 17th.

 

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of January 19, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 520700 tons, an increase of 16400 tons compared to the previous period.

 

Supply and demand side: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream businesses are gradually taking a break, resulting in a gradual reduction in natural rubber inventory and sluggish market transactions.

 

Market forecast: The supply of foreign raw materials is gradually increasing in the current season, but the domestic market is in a period of suspension, which provides some support for natural rubber; As the Spring Festival approaches and stocking ends, market transactions will gradually decline; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.

http://www.thiourea.net

Price Trends in 2024

 

According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of hot process phosphoric acid on January 1st was 6580 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 6630 yuan/ton. In 2024, the domestic hot process phosphoric acid market rose by 0.76% for the whole year. The highest value of thermal phosphoric acid within the year was 6840 yuan/ton on October 31, and the lowest value within the year was 6340 yuan/ton on January 15.

 

According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of wet process phosphoric acid on January 1st was 6450 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 7000 yuan/ton. In 2024, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid market rose by 8.53% for the whole year. The highest value of wet process phosphoric acid was 7033 yuan/ton on September 14th, and the lowest value was 6350 yuan/ton on January 10th.

 

Market Analysis for 2024

 

The phosphoric acid market in 2024 will experience mixed ups and downs, with fluctuations being the main trend. In January, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. Before the Spring Festival, the market demand was sluggish, with few inquiries and relatively quiet transactions, and the market sentiment was mainly bearish. From February to April, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated and rose. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, and with the help of costs, phosphoric acid companies have raised their quotations. The market demand gradually follows after the holiday, with downstream essential procurement being the main focus. Wet process phosphoric acid spot supply is tight, while market demand is stable. From May to June, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support is insufficient. The phosphoric acid market has sufficient supply, but weak market demand. From July to October, the market price of phosphoric acid increased. Raw material yellow phosphorus is running at a high level, the supply of phosphoric acid market is tight, and the phosphoric acid market is running relatively strong. From October to December, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, cost support has weakened, and the market price of thermal phosphoric acid has fallen. Market trading is limited, and there are not many new transactions. Supported by downstream demand for wet process phosphoric acid, the market is strong.

 

According to the K-bar chart of 2024, it can be seen that the largest increase in phosphoric acid in 2024 was in August, with an increase of 2.47%. The largest decline of the year was in November, with a drop of 2.63%.

 

Market forecast after 2025

 

Supply situation

 

The total production capacity of phosphoric acid in China in 2024 is about 4.55 million tons. The production capacity of wet process phosphoric acid is about 3.48 million tons, and the production capacity of hot process phosphoric acid is about 1.07 million tons. In recent years, the production capacity and output of wet process phosphoric acid in China have shown an increasing trend. With the advancement of wet process phosphoric acid purification technology, the proportion of wet process phosphoric acid is gradually increasing. It is expected that the market share of wet process phosphoric acid will continue to increase in 2025, while the market share of hot process phosphoric acid will further decrease.

 

Export situation

 

The export volume of food grade phosphoric acid in China in 2024 is 348800 tons, a decrease of 15100 tons compared to the export volume in 2023. The export amount was 328 million US dollars, a decrease of 68 million US dollars from 2023. In recent years, foreign buyers have been more cautious, resulting in a slight decrease in export volume. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in the export market in 2025.

 

Demand situation

 

With the rapid development of the new energy and new materials industries in recent years, the demand for phosphoric acid has significantly increased. Promote the rapid development of technological innovation in the phosphoric acid industry, as well as further improve product quality and production efficiency. Under the pressure of strengthened environmental regulations, enterprises need to increase their environmental awareness and improve their production processes and technologies. It is expected that the demand for phosphoric acid market will continue to increase in 2025.

 

summary

 

In summary, the domestic phosphoric acid market will experience mixed ups and downs in 2024, with overall fluctuations being the main trend. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will maintain sufficient supply by 2025, and market demand will continue to increase, resulting in volatile market conditions. Under the influence of the country’s increased efforts in phosphorus chemical environmental protection, China’s phosphoric acid production technology will continue to be optimized and improved.

http://www.thiourea.net

This week, the epoxy propane market is stable with a moderate to strong adjustment. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8075 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.86% compared to the beginning of this month.

 

Price influencing factors:

Thiourea

 

Supply side: With the gradual restart of enterprise facilities, the production of epichlorohydrin has increased. The on-site production facilities have gradually resumed operation. Individual load reduction maintenance of chlorohydrin method, Lihua Yi continues to operate at 60% load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical stops.

 

Raw material side: The prices of propylene and liquid chlorine have fluctuated this week. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7005.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.49% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton).

 

Downstream demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand sentiment is relatively cold, and there is insufficient follow-up on procurement. The market’s actual order trading is cold, and the main focus is on first-time purchases, with a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

 

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that with the restart and recovery of enterprise equipment, epoxy propane production has increased, and downstream demand side purchases are cautious and insufficient to follow up, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

http://www.thiourea.net

This week (1.1-1.10), there was a slight adjustment in dichloromethane. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2827 yuan/ton on January 10th, with a weekly increase of 1.53%.

 

The demand side improved during the week, with a slight increase in enterprise quotations and a decrease in costs. The on-site operating load has increased, and currently there is no pressure on enterprise inventory. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened, and the trend of inventory pressure is evident, which may pose an upward resistance to dichloromethane. On January 10th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2800-2830 yuan/ton.

 

Supply side: During the upward phase of the start-up load this week, there has been an increase in on-site supply. The following is the operation status of the enterprise’s methane chloride unit:

 

On the cost side, the methanol market has declined, with increased supply and improved trading atmosphere. On January 10th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2674.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.05% from the beginning of the month. The market situation of liquid chlorine in Shandong is stable.

 

On the demand side, the price of R32 is showing an upward trend, especially in the first quarter of 2025, due to the influence of orders from air conditioning manufacturers, the price is expected to rise again. It is reported that as of January 9, 2025, the price of R32 is 43000 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5% compared to the previous month. Other applications should maintain a strong demand for purchasing and restock at low prices.

 

Business analysts believe that the cost side market is weak, and the demand side refrigerant market is boosted by an upward trend. However, many industries are looking forward to low-priced purchases, and supply side inventories are showing an increasing trend. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

http://www.thiourea.net

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate continued to operate under pressure at the end of the year, with weak fluctuations. As of December 31, the domestic price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 76400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.8% from the same period last month at 78600 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 78800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the same period last month at 81200 yuan/ton.

 

From the perspective of the supply side:

 

The production of lithium carbonate continued to rebound in November and December, especially with significant increases in the high operating rates of spodumene and lithium mica, keeping the supply running at a high level. But some lithium salt factories have Spring Festival maintenance plans, and it is expected that production will decrease.

 

From the perspective of demand side:

 

The operating rate of the top domestic ternary material factories in December was relatively high. In contrast, the reduction and shutdown of small and medium-sized ternary material factories are more obvious. Guided by the expectations of battery companies to rush to install and export power batteries, it is expected that the production scheduling of top ternary material companies will maintain a high level in January.

 

From the perspective of imports:

 

In November 2024, the import volume of lithium concentrate in China was 482500 tons, a decrease of 4% compared to the previous month. The decrease was mainly due to the decline in imports of Australian and Nigerian mines, but there was a significant increase in lithium imports from Brazil and Zimbabwe. From January to November 2024, a total of 5.215 million tons of lithium concentrate were imported, an increase of 35% compared to the same period last year. Lithium ore imports are still at a high level.

 

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that lithium salt factories may experience a decline in production after the year, coupled with continued high demand from downstream material factories. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience strong fluctuations at the beginning of the year, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

http://www.thiourea.net