According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 16th to December 23rd, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 10450 yuan/ton to 10837.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.71% during the cycle. This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise, and the available supply of goods in the spot market was generally tight. Holders of goods had a strong mentality of raising prices, and the spot market quotation was overall upward. Boosted by this news, spot market offers generally rose. But as prices continue to rise, downstream delivery capabilities gradually decline. Overall, the downstream market currently has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market will first rise and then stabilize this week. Sinopec will raise the price by 400 yuan/ton to 10900 yuan/ton during the cycle. As of December 23rd, the delivery price in Shandong region is 11250 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

 

Cost aspect: Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The protection of OPEC+production reduction atmosphere still exists, but the pessimistic demand will still suppress oil prices. Overall, the international crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of December 20th, the settlement price of the main international crude oil futures contract was $69.46 per barrel, an increase of $0.08 or 0.1%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.94 per barrel, an increase of $0.06 or 0.1%.

 

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 10900 yuan/ton as of the 23rd, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 10500 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

 

The 90000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit of Satellite Chemical is operating normally, with a reduction of 100 yuan/ton and an execution of 11000 yuan/ton.

 

Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with a reduction of 100 yuan/ton and an implementation of 11000 yuan/ton.

 

The 50000 tons/year butadiene unit of Dongming Petrochemical is operating normally, with 280 tons exported and a base price of 11300 yuan/ton.

 

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the rubber market has been operating steadily with a slight weakness this week, and there has been little change in market prices. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise significantly, styrene prices have slightly adjusted, and the cost center of styrene butadiene rubber has slightly increased. Downstream all steel tire production has slightly increased; The price fluctuation of styrene butadiene rubber is limited.

 

Market forecast: In terms of supply, the overall supply of butadiene has been tight in the near future, with fewer port sources and still strong market sentiment. From the perspective of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, and due to poor profits, production has slightly declined, providing strong support for the butadiene market. Overall, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for the butadiene market to continue to rise. Market sentiment tends to be wait-and-see, and it is expected that market prices will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the production of new facilities and the arrival of ports.

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I want to know why plasticizers are showing such a trend in 2024 and where they will go in 2025? We first need to understand the historical market situation of plasticizers, and the future trend of plasticizers is also closely related to their history.

 

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Review of Plasticizer Market over the Years

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of DOP has been continuously declining in 2024. As of December 20th, the price of DOP has dropped by 30% for the whole year of 2024, reaching the average annual level of 2017, and the DOP market has returned to the blue ocean. As of December 20, 2024, the DOP price was 8401.25 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.21% compared to the DOP price of 8383.33 yuan/ton on January 1, 2017. Compared to the average DOP price of 8509.94 yuan/ton in 2017, it has slightly decreased by 1.28%. It can be seen that the price of plasticizer DOP experienced significant peaks and valleys from 2017 to 2024, and most of the time DOP prices were at a high level, resulting in relatively high profits for DOP enterprises. However, with the decline in plasticizer prices in 2024, the profit of the plasticizer market rapidly declined, and the plasticizer market returned to the blue ocean. During these eight years, plasticizers have gone through six distinct stages of rise and fall.

 

Phase 1: Environmental impact, plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise

 

From 2017 to October 2018, the price of plasticizer DOP increased slightly. Affected by environmental protection and production reduction, plasticizer enterprises have seen a decrease in production, a reduction in plasticizer supply, and a fluctuating rise in plasticizer DOP prices.

 

Phase 2: Trade war leads to a decline in demand

 

From the fourth quarter of 2018 to 2019, with the stable operation of upstream and downstream enterprises in the plasticizer industry chain, coupled with intensified international trade disputes and a decline in demand, plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell in 2019. However, at the end of 2019, the outbreak of the epidemic led to a cliff like decline in demand, and in early April 2020, plasticizer prices reached their lowest point in the cycle.

 

Phase Three: Rising Prices of Plasticizers

 

From 2020 to August 2021, as the epidemic continued to develop, the operating capacity of plasticizer companies declined. In addition, the international market was deeply affected by the epidemic, and the operating capacity of enterprises plummeted sharply. However, the demand in the end consumer market remained stable, and the demand in the Chinese market surged. With the normalization of environmental protection in China, the operating capacity of plasticizer companies’ equipment was relatively low, and the supply was tight, with weak supply and strong demand. The price of plasticizers soared and reached a new high in the past 10 years in early August 2021.

 

Stage 4: Plasticizer prices fall back

 

From the second half of 2021 to 2022, international market demand tends to stabilize, coupled with the addition of new production capacity by domestic plasticizer enterprises, resulting in oversupply and weak demand among domestic plasticizer enterprises, leading to a rapid decline in plasticizer prices.

 

Stage 5: Plasticizer prices rebound and rise

 

Continuous maintenance has led to fluctuating prices of plasticizers in 2023. 2023 is a year of frequent accidents for plasticizer related enterprises, with continuous accidents in the upstream and downstream of the plasticizer industry chain, reduced supply from plasticizer enterprises, and fluctuating prices of plasticizers.

 

Stage 6: Plasticizer prices continue to decline

 

In 2024, plasticizer companies resumed production, plasticizer supply was sufficient, international market political crises continued, global economy weakened, demand fell, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell. As of December 19, 2024, plasticizer DOP prices fell to a level comparable to the average price in 2017, and the plasticizer market returned to the blue ocean.

 

The plasticizer market returns to the blue ocean in 2024

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen from the above analysis that the plasticizer market since 2017 is difficult to replicate, and the high price support of plasticizers is no longer there. The price of plasticizer DOP will continue to decline in 2024. Although the price of plasticizer DOP briefly increased in April, May, September, and October due to the impact of peak and off peak seasons, the overall downward trend is difficult to change. As of December 20th, the price of plasticizer DOP fell by 30.52% for the whole year of 2024, leading the decline in the chemical industry sector. The relative balance of supply and demand in the plasticizer industry chain in 2024, coupled with a decrease in raw material prices, is the main reason for the decline in DOP prices.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the correlation between plasticizer DOP and isooctanol is as high as 0.960 in 2024, indicating a highly positive correlation. The price of plasticizer DOP will decline with the decrease in isooctanol prices. However, from the rise and fall of isooctanol and DOP, it can be seen that the decline of DOP is significantly slower than that of isooctanol. In 2024, DOP has a larger profit margin, and DOP enterprises have a higher enthusiasm for starting production, leading to the normalization of DOP oversupply. The expected supply and demand of plasticizers in 2025 are relatively balanced, and the price trend of plasticizers is closely related to raw material prices. With the release of raw material costs in 2025, there will be significant downward pressure on DOP in the future market.

 

In terms of raw materials

In 2024, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the price of isooctanol was 8100 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.65% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on December 9th. From the second half of 2023 to 2024, isooctanol enterprises will add about 2.5 million tons of production capacity, and new isooctanol production capacity will be put into operation one after another, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol supply. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the octanol increment, and the supply increment of isooctanol is greater than the demand increment. The downward pressure on isooctanol has increased, and the price of isooctanol will fluctuate significantly in 2024. In 2025, with the stable production of new production capacity of isooctanol, the market for isooctanol will gradually shift from supply shortage to oversupply, and there will still be downward pressure on isooctanol in 2025.

 

The price of phthalic anhydride will first rise and then fall in 2024

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 6587.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 14.03% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on January 1st, which was 7662.50 yuan/ton. In 2024, the addition and elimination of production capacity in the domestic phthalic anhydride industry will coexist, and phased overcapacity will become the norm. The trend of phthalic anhydride is positively correlated with the trend of raw material ortho benzene. The rise in phthalic anhydride prices in the first half of the year and the fall in prices in the second half of the year are closely related to the rise and fall of ortho benzene prices. In the second half of the year, Brazil’s anti-dumping measures against Chinese phthalic anhydride, coupled with India’s mandatory BIS certification for Chinese made phthalic anhydride starting from the second half of 2023, have hindered the two major export destinations, resulting in a significant drop in China’s export volume, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40%. Due to oversupply and declining demand, the rise of phthalic anhydride in 2025 will be weak.

 

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of upstream raw materials, there is an increase in production capacity and supply of isooctanol, and the profits of isooctanol enterprises are relatively high. Therefore, there is still room for price reduction of isooctanol; Excess production capacity of phthalic anhydride has become the norm, coupled with export restrictions, resulting in significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride; In terms of supply and demand of plasticizers, on the supply side, there is overcapacity and sufficient supply of plasticizers, while on the demand side, the market is weak and demand support is limited. Domestic plasticizer prices are relatively low, which is favorable for exports. There is some support for exports, but overall demand for plasticizers is relatively stagnant with limited upward support. In terms of downstream, the international economic environment has not shown significant improvement, the future policy direction of the United States is uncertain, and the market expectations for the future remain weak, with weak support for the demand for plasticizers. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; The economy may recover to a certain extent in 2025, but the overall economic weakness still exists, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak. Coupled with oversupply, it is expected that the plasticizer industry chain will consolidate at a low level in the future, and plasticizer profits will be further compressed. Plasticizer companies may struggle to survive in the blue ocean in 2025.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 9th to 13th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5375 yuan/ton to 5332 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 21.58%. The fatigue of the domestic ethanol market is difficult to change, and the market lacks positive news support, resulting in continued weak downstream demand. Holders of goods are experiencing slow shipments, resulting in overall high pressure on shipments. Manufacturers are under pressure to sell at a discount, causing ethanol prices to fluctuate and fall.

 

On the cost side, the price of raw material corn has fluctuated and stabilized, with overall corn prices remaining stable. Some deep processing enterprises have made narrow price adjustments, while the price range remains stable. After the price fell, farmers’ reluctance to sell increased, and the amount of grain purchased decreased. At present, the overall willingness to store grain in the trade sector is still weak, and the effective supply in the market is relatively sufficient. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

 

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable with small fluctuations. The Fukang Fourth Line, Heilongjiang Shenglong, and Dongfeng Hualiang facilities have resumed production, and the operating load is gradually increasing. Some areas may see an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

 

On the demand side, the terminal consumption of Baijiu has little change, and the demand side support is limited; Downstream ethyl acetate has heard that Henan Ruibai has a restart plan, with a slight increase in operating rate expected, which may increase the consumption of raw material ethanol. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

 

In the future market forecast, the supply-demand game will become more apparent under the expectation of new production capacity shipments. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly operate weakly and steadily.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market remained stable this week, with an average price of 6690 yuan/ton.

 

The domestic isopropanol market is temporarily stable this week. The acetone market for raw materials has risen, and cost support is still acceptable. However, the demand in the terminal market is poor, continuing to be weak, and the overall downstream purchasing intention is not strong. The actual orders are cautious, and the overall trading situation is average. Most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6700 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region range from 7050-7200 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has increased this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 5867.5 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5890 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.38%. Spot resources in the market are tightening, and traders have a good mentality, with little intention of buying at low prices.

 

In terms of propylene, the market price of propylene has risen this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 6838.25 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6870.75 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.48%. At present, inventory is low and downstream demand is good, but buying is cautious. It is expected that the market will experience fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The isopropanol analyst from the Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market has been stagnant and consolidating this week. The market prices of propylene and acetone have both slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. The downstream procurement intention is not strong, mainly based on demand. It is expected that the short-term isopropanol market will continue to stabilize and operate.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring of the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the overall price of bromine remained stable in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 22200 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 22400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.46%. On November 28th, the bromine commodity index was 78.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.94% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 33.40% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The overall price of bromine has been consolidating this month. The mainstream market price in Shandong is currently around 22000-23000 yuan/ton. The device is running smoothly, the supply is normal, and the market trading atmosphere is calm. In terms of demand, the main downstream flame retardant procurement is highly active, but the overall supply-demand game price is running steadily.

 

Regarding sulfur: The overall price of sulfur rose in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1547.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 1654.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.89% and a year-on-year increase of 55.09%. The transaction atmosphere in the sulfur market is still acceptable, and the demand for this month is also acceptable.

 

Business analysts believe that the price of bromine has been consolidating recently. At present, the supply of bromine is normal, and the demand for downstream flame retardants remains stable. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that the short-term price of bromine may stabilize, depending on the downstream market demand.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market experienced a slight decline in November. As of November 29th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.03% from the beginning of the month.

 

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The international oil price market was mainly volatile in November, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month and a gradual decline in crude oil prices in the later period. Overall, the crude oil market remained relatively stable. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, and OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic, which is suppressing the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price is mainly fluctuating widely.

 

The domestic PTA spot market maintained a volatile downward trend, with the average PTA market price in East China at 4741 yuan/ton as of November 29th, a decrease of 3.24% from the beginning of the month. Multiple PTA units have increased their load within the month, with ample supply in the spot market and lackluster downstream demand. PTA is mainly driven by rigid demand. The fluctuating geopolitical situation and wide fluctuations in international crude oil prices have provided a certain boost to PTA costs. Under the game of weak fundamentals and cost support, PTA prices have adjusted downward overall.

 

The downstream market has gradually entered the traditional off-season of demand, with yarn mills starting production or appropriately reducing it. Enterprise inventory may show a trend of accumulation, and factory shipment conditions may be difficult to improve. Domestic sales are gradually weakening, while foreign trade is partially recovering. As the end of the month approaches, most weaving factories have reported a significant decline in the market, with an outstanding order volume of around one month. A few weaving factories have stated that they have sufficient orders to meet the end of the year. Foreign trade home textile orders and simulated silk orders from the Middle East have been issued in bulk, but weaving factories generally indicate that prices are low. At present, the operating rate of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 71%, and there is a high probability of a decline in demand in the later stage, with poor speculative and rigid demand.

 

Business Society analysts believe that as December approaches the Spring Festival, some polyester staple fiber factories will gradually carry out maintenance and supply will gradually shrink. However, with the continued off-season for textiles, demand for polyester staple fibers will decline even more, weakening price support. Therefore, the polyester staple fiber market is likely to continue to weaken.

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