According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 18th to 22nd (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2510 yuan/ton to 2580 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.79% during the period, a month on month increase of 6.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.43%. The domestic methanol market is mainly on the rise. The continuous external procurement of some large-scale olefin plants downstream, coupled with low inventory of methanol enterprises, and limited shipments by some production enterprises, have driven the continuous rise of methanol market prices in mainland China.

 

Thiourea

As of the close on November 22nd, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2585 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2630 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2576 yuan/ton. It closed at 2612 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 1.32%. The trading volume was 803085 lots, the position was 745004 lots, and the daily increase was 53682.

 

On the cost side, the overall supply and demand structure of the chemical coal market is still showing a loose trend. In addition, the inventory of thermal power plants remains high, and there is no possibility of large-scale coal hoarding in the short term. Even a small amount of rigid demand cannot drive a sustained strong rebound in coal prices, and the weak demand side has led to a continued stalemate and instability in the market. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

 

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Yankuang is expected to recover, and if there are no other equipment failures, the demand for acetic acid will continue to increase; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. Most downstream products have increased their demand for methanol, which is influenced by favorable factors on the demand side.

 

On the supply side, the loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

 

In terms of external markets, as of the close of November 21st, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was between $345.00 and $346.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 118.00-119.00 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 411.00-412.00 euros/ton, up 2 euros/ton.

 

In the future market forecast, there will be sustained positive developments in supply and demand. Business Society’s methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may mainly operate at a high level.

http://www.thiourea.net

Recently, the acrylic acid market is indeed facing expectations of supply side inventory release and the possibility of excessive market stalemate. The following is a detailed analysis of this phenomenon:

 

1、 Expected release of supply side inventory

 

Equipment maintenance and resumption of production:

 

This week, multiple sets of acrylic acid plants in China have maintained a narrowing trend in the utilization rate of acrylic acid production capacity due to maintenance or reduced load operation. At the same time, some devices have resumed production after maintenance, but overall, the incremental speed of the supply side is relatively slow.

 

Capacity and output:

 

The overall production capacity of the acrylic acid industry is relatively stable, but actual output has fluctuated due to factors such as maintenance. With the gradual resumption of production of maintenance equipment, the supply side is expected to release more production capacity, but the specific release speed and scale still need to be observed.

 

2、 The acrylic acid market may be deadlocked excessively

 

Price trend:

 

This week, the price of acrylic acid showed a slow upward trend, but the increase was relatively limited. Affected by the slowdown in the incremental supply of spot goods on the supply side, the intention of suppliers to make spot offers is relatively firm. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6862.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6837.50 yuan/ton).

 

At the same time, downstream demand is relatively stable, with factories maintaining long-term inventory consumption and average inquiries from low-priced sources.

 

Market wait-and-see sentiment:

 

Due to the expected release on the supply side, but the downstream demand has not shown significant growth, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Traders and downstream users are more cautious when making purchases, resulting in a slower increase in market trading volume.

 

Supply and demand pattern:

 

The current supply and demand pattern in the acrylic acid market is relatively tight, but there has not been a serious imbalance. With the gradual release of supply and slow growth of downstream demand, the market is expected to reach a new supply-demand balance in the near future.

 

3、 Fluctuations in raw material prices

 

As the main raw material of acrylic acid, the price fluctuation of propylene directly affects the production cost of acrylic acid. Although the price of propylene has decreased slightly this week, the previous high price may still have a lagging impact on the production cost of acrylic acid. The fluctuation of raw material prices has caused some changes in the cost support of the acrylic acid market, but it has not completely broken the market’s stalemate. On November 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6773.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

 

4、 Future prospects

 

Supply side:

 

The future supply side will continue to be affected by factors such as equipment maintenance, resumption of production, and new production capacity. It is necessary to closely monitor the maintenance plan and resumption progress of each device, as well as the production status of newly added capacity.

 

Demand side:

 

Downstream demand will continue to be influenced by factors such as macroeconomic environment, industry policies, and market competition. We need to pay attention to the development trends of downstream industries and changes in market demand, as well as the expansion of the application of acrylic acid in various fields.

 

Price trend:

 

The future price of acrylic acid will be influenced by various factors such as supply and demand patterns, cost pressures, and market competition. It is expected that the price will show a fluctuating upward trend, but the increase and speed will be constrained by various factors.

 

In summary, the acrylic acid market is indeed facing the expectation of supply side inventory release and the possibility of market deadlock in the near future. The future market trend will be influenced and constrained by various factors, and it is necessary to closely monitor market dynamics and related information in order to make timely and reasonable judgments and decisions.

http://www.thiourea.net

In October, the market for ethyl acetate showed a weak downward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133.34 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month price of 6066.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.20%. The main reason for the decrease in ethyl acetate prices is due to insufficient demand support, weak market trading, a decline in raw material prices, and a bearish attitude from suppliers.

 

Thiourea

Market analysis: This month, the market price of ethyl acetate has continued to decline. Returning from the National Day holiday, due to an increase in downstream replenishment demand and a positive market boost, the price of ethyl acetate has slightly increased; Afterwards, as demand weakened, the trading atmosphere in the market was poor, and manufacturers’ shipments were not smooth, leading to a decrease in quotes from major factories. At the same time, the upstream raw material market was weak and weak, with a negative cost outlook, and prices were transmitted to the end market, resulting in sluggish downstream buying sentiment and continuous decline in ethyl ester prices.

 

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of October 31st, the price was 2850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.31% compared to the acetic acid price of 3250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material side acetic acid market continues to decline, with weak cost support, which has a negative impact on ethyl acetate.

 

Looking at the future market, the price of ethyl acetate continues to decline, and downstream purchases follow suit according to demand. The price of raw material acetic acid is weak, which provides insufficient support for the ethyl acetate market and lacks market benefits. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will consolidate and operate weakly in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

http://www.thiourea.net