The price of plasticizer DOP rose slightly in October after a slight decline

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9138.75 yuan/ton, which increased first and then decreased by 1.67% compared to the daily price of plasticizer DOP of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the daily price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell by 2.66% to 9388.75 yuan/ton. The economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP and a significant rise in DOP prices. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has increased, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. DOP manufacturer’s order sales, downstream demand procurement enthusiasm is average, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated slightly.

 

Downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations

 

Positive policies and rising macroeconomic sentiment have led to a rebound in demand for plasticizers. As October comes to an end and the market enters the off-season, downstream demand has fallen, downstream operating loads have remained relatively stable, and the market recovery has fallen short of expectations. The rise in demand for plasticizers in the market has also fallen short of expectations.

 

The cost of raw materials has fluctuated and fallen after rising

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of isooctanol was 9066.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.13% compared to the price of 8706.67 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 10th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 4.23% to 9466.67 yuan/ton. The economic outlook for October is expected to rebound, and demand for isooctanol is expected to rebound. In addition, after the holiday, isooctanol will be replenished, causing a significant increase in isooctanol prices. With the end of the replenishment, demand will fall, and the high price of isooctanol will drop. Plasticizer companies are operating at a high level, leading to an increase in demand for isooctanol. Isooctanol companies are operating at a high level, resulting in a relatively balanced supply and demand for isooctanol. Isooctanol manufacturers are expected to sell orders, and the market support for isooctanol still exists. As a result, the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and falling.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 7012.50 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.60% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24%. In October, the production of phthalic anhydride equipment remained stable at a high level, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. However, the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market were limited, resulting in oversupply and significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices; The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has weakened. The oversupply has led to a decrease in costs, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

 

Future expectations

 

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased; In terms of demand, as the economy recovers and the demand for plasticizers increases, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the demand for plasticizers in the market is growing slowly. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; Policy support has led to a rebound in the plasticizer DOP market, with high operating loads from plasticizer manufacturers and sufficient supply of DOP, resulting in a balanced supply and demand in the plasticizer market. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and decline in the future.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises has slightly increased from 4240 yuan/ton to 0.47% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market focus is stable, and overall market shipments are slow. The mainstream market price is around 4300 yuan/ton, and inventory is running at a low level.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the overall market price of DMF remained stable, with prices maintained at around 4300 yuan per ton. Currently, the market trend is strong, with the mainstream price range around 4300 yuan per ton. Some manufacturers have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in low on-site inventory and active downstream procurement. Currently, DMF cost support is insufficient, and inventory is running at a high level.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with mainstream prices around 4300 yuan/ton.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of October 18th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to the same period last week. The price of cyclohexane remained relatively strong this week, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders, active shipments, decent downstream demand, slow inventory consumption, and overall market purchasing enthusiasm.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In terms of cost, the pure benzene market has been mainly weak this week. Currently, the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is light, and the crude oil market is sluggish. The cost side of cyclohexane lacks favorable support, and the price of pure benzene has followed the weakness of crude oil. The main issue is the destocking of port inventory. However, there is a large accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. The local refining market in Shandong continues to decline.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term upward momentum of the cyclohexane market price is expected to be limited, and the current trend will be maintained.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda has increased after the holiday. The average price in the Shandong market was 833 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and around 891 yuan/ton on Sunday. The overall price increased by 6.96%, but decreased by 12.39% compared to the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased after the holiday. Currently, the price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is on the rise, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion exchange membrane alkali being around 920-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is rising, and the downstream main procurement has increased by about 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali is around 860-950 yuan/ton.

 

After the holiday, caustic soda manufacturers will adjust their quotations flexibly according to their own needs. After the holiday, the expected maintenance of chlor alkali facilities in Shandong region, coupled with the low liquid chlorine market, has led to a decline in profits for chlor alkali enterprises, causing caustic soda manufacturers to raise prices. In the short term, the domestic price of alumina continues to show a stable to strong trend, and the production lines of alumina plants maintain high load production for a long time, resulting in good demand for caustic soda and driving up the price of caustic soda.

 

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been on the rise, indicating a trend in the market. At present, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low, the number of maintenance enterprises in the main production areas is increasing, and the downstream demand for alumina is good. It cannot be ruled out that there may be a price increase in the market. Overall, it is expected to operate mainly in the later stage or increase, depending on downstream market demand.

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In September 2024, the domestic adhesive short fiber market showed an upward trend, with the cost of upstream raw material dissolution pulp remaining firm and stable, and cost support still remaining; The manufacturer’s inventory is not high; Downstream personnel will follow up on cotton yarn as needed. At the beginning of the month, manufacturers signed a new round of orders, and downstream manufacturers inquired about orders and prices one after another. With the interweaving of information on the market, there was a certain confidence in the “Golden Nine”, and manufacturers gradually raised prices by 100-200 yuan/ton; In mid to late month, manufacturers mainly execute orders, and adhesive short fibers operate steadily.

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the trend of the adhesive short fiber market is expected to rise in September 2024. As of September 30th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.04%.

 

Cost side support remains stable

 

In September, the market price of the main raw material dissolved pulp in the upstream remained firm and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolved pulp is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of broad-leaved pulp in the external market is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The cost side of the adhesive short fiber market is supported by favorable factors and remains stable.

 

Stable supply, low inventory

 

The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.

 

The demand has not shown significant improvement

 

Entering the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there are no obvious signs of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding onto essential orders, and the demand side recovery is not as expected.

 

Downstream cotton yarn market

 

In September 2024, the price of cotton yarn slightly increased with the rise of viscose staple fiber. As of September 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17575 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.15%.

 

Future forecast

 

The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber remains firm and stable, with relatively tight supply in the market. In October, there is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but there will be no significant improvement in the short-term demand side. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers will mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with little price fluctuation. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13800 yuan/ton.

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