The price of plasticizer DOP increased in a “W” pattern in September

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8851.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.26% compared to the DOP price of 8963.75 yuan/ton on September 23rd; Compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 9th, it has increased by 4.58%; Compared to September 1st, the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 1.43%. In September, the DOP price first rose and then fell, with a “W” – shaped oscillating rise in DOP prices. The expected increase in operating rate of plasticizer enterprises leads to an increase in demand for plasticizers; In addition, due to stocking up before the National Day holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose, but the gold nine color was insufficient, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover enough. The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, and the price of plasticizers rose in a “W” shape.

 

Slow recovery of downstream demand

 

The concentrated maintenance season for the PVC paste resin industry in 2024 has come to an end, and the maintenance losses in the PVC paste resin industry will gradually recover. The production of the PVC paste resin industry will gradually return to stability, and the total supply of the industry will gradually increase, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers. The peak season of the Golden September and Silver October is not prosperous, and the fulfillment of terminal demand is not as expected. The overall load of downstream production is low. The central bank’s reserve requirement ratio reduction measures have driven a rebound in the commodity market. The favorable macroeconomic policies of the country stimulate the growth of the Chinese market, and there are expectations of recovery in the medium and long term demand. However, the recovery of downstream demand in the short term is still relatively slow, and the recovery of demand for plasticizers is slow.

 

Raw material costs fluctuate and rise

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of isooctanol was 8416.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.36% from the price of 8800 yuan/ton on September 23rd; Compared to September 1st, the price of isooctanol increased by 5.43% to 7983.33 yuan/ton. The peak season of Golden September is approaching, and the demand for isooctanol is recovering. In addition, the pre holiday stocking of isooctanol has led to a fluctuating rise in its price; But the recovery of demand for Jinjiu is limited, and the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7225 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on September 1st. At the end of September, the price of ortho xylene was 7100 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 10.13% compared to the price of ortho xylene on September 1, which was 7900 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with frequent shutdowns of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing tight supply and queuing for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride. There is still significant downward pressure and upward momentum for phthalic anhydride.

 

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell in September, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The support for the increase in plasticizer DOP cost still exists; In terms of supply, the increase in production of plasticizer DOP manufacturers is limited, and DOP manufacturers continue to operate at low loads, resulting in limited increase in DOP supply; In terms of demand, favorable policies and the plasticizer market have boosted expectations for recovery in the medium to long term, while the recovery of downstream demand in the short term is still relatively slow. Expected future price fluctuation and rise of plasticizer DOP

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexane remained stable this week, with downstream demand falling short of expectations. The overall market shipment was slow, inventory remained high, and downstream purchases were mainly for essential needs. Many operators adopted a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In terms of cost, the pure benzene market has been mainly weak this week. Yesterday, the price delivery mentality was positive, with a narrow downward trend. As of now, the upstream pure benzene price has slightly rebounded, with a narrow upward trend. Dongying Fuhaiweilian Petrochemical’s pure benzene price has been raised by 20 yuan, with a price of 8413 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that it is expected that the market price of cyclohexane will maintain its current trend in the short term, and the price will mainly operate steadily.

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Market Overview

 

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This week, the melamine market has been volatile, and overall, the fundamentals are weak. As of September 12th, the reference price of melamine was 6762.50, a decrease of 0.18% compared to September 1st (6775.00). Prices in the northern region continue to decline, and some companies adjust their prices based on their own orders. Some regions have set new lows, and some companies with good orders have experienced significant price reductions due to the overall lack of confidence among market participants. In the future, some facilities in the northern region will undergo maintenance, resulting in reduced supply or providing some support for prices.

 

Supply side

 

This week, the domestic urea market continued to decline and consolidate, with no signs of stopping the decline. The focus of transactions continued to shift downwards, and overall market transactions remained average! As of September 13th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2117.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.58% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton). The daily production of urea maintains a high level of operation, and currently the urea market is difficult to find good news.

 

In terms of demand

 

The ‘Golden September’ has arrived, but there has been no significant improvement in domestic demand, with on-demand procurement being the main focus, making it difficult for the melamine market to experience any fluctuations. In addition, the raw material urea market continues to be weak, and the cost support for the melamine market is limited.

 

Overall, demand is still weak, and downstream industries such as sheet metal are difficult to boost in the short term. Downstream procurement tends to be cautious; In terms of supply, although the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased compared to the past, the overall market supply is still relatively high; In terms of raw material urea, the current urea price is still low, which temporarily makes it difficult to form strong support for the melamine market. It is expected that the melamine market will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and continuous attention should be paid to the operating conditions of enterprises and changes in urea prices.

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Fall first and then rise in August

 

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The price of ethylene glycol first fell and then rose in August. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4678.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from August 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

 

The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4600-4795 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4600 yuan/ton.

 

On August 30, 2024, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port was close to low and far from high. The paper cargo basis quotation for the 01 contract this week ranges from -1 to+3; The basis of forward contracts is relatively strong, with a base price of 12-18 yuan/ton in September and 14-22 yuan/ton in October.

 

On August 30th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4250-4350 yuan/ton, including tax.

 

On August 29, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $564/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $556/ton. The domestic landed price has slightly increased.

 

List of August Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Data

 

As of August 30, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 673300 tons, an increase of 57000 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 616300 tons on August 1.

 

We will first go to the warehouse and then accumulate inventory within the month, mainly due to the concentrated arrival of goods at the port last week, resulting in accumulated inventory data at the port. This week’s expectations for the port have declined, leading to a decrease in inventory data.

 

Reasons for the rebound of ethylene glycol prices in August:

 

Negative expectations on the supply side of market transactions

 

On the supply side, the scale of production reduction in ethylene glycol plants has recently expanded, partly due to the favorable price difference of EO conversion, achieving production capacity conversion, and partly due to planned shutdown and maintenance. On the demand side, downstream demand is expected to be strong during the peak season, with a turning point in the peak season for gold and silver, and a slight rebound in downstream operating rates.

 

Future expectations

 

At present, the absolute amount of explicit inventory in ports is still relatively low. This provides some support for the price of ethylene glycol.

 

It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will experience strong fluctuations in the short term, but the price ceiling will narrow.

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