1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on August 23 was 908 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.30% compared to the average price of 896 yuan/ton on August 16.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price first rose and then fell, with an overall price increase. This week, the operating rate of coking enterprises is relatively low, and some enterprises have limited production. The operating rate of internal level enterprises has also decreased. At the beginning of the week, market demand remained stable, downstream inquiries increased, the focus of ammonium sulfate transactions shifted upward, and prices rose. Recently, the market has started to consolidate, with minor fluctuations being the main trend. As of August 23rd, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 895-950 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At present, the export market is improving and the market trading atmosphere is improving. It is expected that there is still room for growth in the domestic ammonium sulfate market after a slight consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline rose and then fell back this week. On August 12th, the market price of aniline was 10550 yuan/ton, and on August 16th it was 10120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.05% compared to last week and 9.13% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market was under pressure and fell. Last week, the aniline market rose three times, but due to high prices and weak downstream demand, the aniline market fell back after rising prices to stimulate sales. With the decline in prices, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere downstream, and the enthusiasm for purchasing has decreased. Upstream inventory is low, and there is a clear willingness to raise prices.

Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has shown a strong trend, with increased support for aniline. On August 12th, the average price of pure benzene was 8464 yuan/ton, and on August 16th, the average price of pure benzene was 8534 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current aniline market is stable in terms of purchase and sales, with a strong upstream price mentality and downstream demand entering the market. Supply and demand remain stable, and it is expected that the aniline market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and consolidated in early August, with various spot prices of different brands fluctuating. As of August 12th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16400 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.40 compared to August 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A was relatively weak in early August. The remote international crude oil price increase is suppressed by weak demand prospects, while the direct PC raw materials phenol and acetone both weaken, and the support for bisphenol A on the raw material side weakens. In addition, there is an expected increase in the load of the bisphenol A industry, with a trend of increasing supply and loose support on the supply side. The downstream production of the two main forces has weakened, with weak inventory and rigid demand procurement, resulting in a slowdown in the liquidity of the supply of goods. Overall, the support of bisphenol A for PC costs has decreased.

On the supply side: Since August, the overall operating rate of PC in China has remained stable with slight increases, and the industry average operating rate has narrowly increased to around 73.16% compared to the end of July. In the early stage, spot prices fell to the lowest point of the year, and manufacturers increased their bottom building operations by raising prices. The ex factory pricing remained firm, and some auction houses were sold at a premium. The scale of the future maintenance plan is average, and the industry load is stable with an upward trend. The supply of domestic goods will further increase. The on-site supply of goods will still remain abundant, and overall, the market supply side provides moderate support for PC prices.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern did not show any improvement in early August, and the overall trend remained weak compared to the previous period. The main logic of procurement is biased towards weak rigid demand, with factories taking goods to maintain production. Downstream enterprises have low loads, weak stocking enthusiasm, and a narrow decline in consumption. Buyers have some resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market fluctuated weakly in early August. The upstream bisphenol A market has weakened, and the support for PC costs has weakened. The load of domestic aggregation plants is stable, with limited changes in supply side factors. At present, PC prices are still in the low point range of the year, and the market has limited decline due to bottoming out and forming a bottoming force. However, considering the high inventory pressure on PC society and the difficult supply-demand contradiction in the market, it is expected that the PC market will continue to operate at a low level in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8371 yuan/ton on August 1st, and the average price was 8328 yuan/ton on August 8th, with a price drop of 0.51% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9912 yuan/ton on August 1st, and the average price was 10062 yuan/ton on August 8th, with a price increase of 1.51% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8137 yuan/ton on August 1st, and the average price was 8137 yuan/ton on August 8th, during which the quotation was temporarily stable.

Recently, the price of polyethylene has fluctuated, with linear products experiencing a narrow range of weak downward adjustments. High voltage product quotations have increased, while low-voltage product quotations remain strong. On August 8th, international crude oil futures rose, oil prices rose, and there was some support on the cost side. With the continuous restart of polyethylene maintenance equipment, there is an expected increase in the supply side; On the demand side, it is in the traditional off-season, with limited order follow-up, a bearish market mentality, and a poor trading atmosphere on the market. Traders mainly offer small discounts for shipments, and linear product quotations are adjusted narrowly and weakly. However, the prices of high-pressure products are rising, and due to the impact of the Middle East situation, imported sources may be affected, leading to a significant increase in the prices of high-pressure products.

On August 9th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2409 contract opened at 8162 yuan and closed at 8150 yuan, a decrease of 35 yuan, with a maximum of 8220 yuan and a minimum of 8139 yuan, a decrease of 0.43%. Recently, the weak performance of polyethylene futures has been the main factor, providing limited support for the spot market.

As the maintenance equipment restarts one after another, there is an expected increase in the supply side; In mid to late August, the demand for greenhouse film market may begin to rebound, and the market will enter the reserve stage. Polyethylene is expected to rise in the short term, but the upward adjustment space may be limited.

In July, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued its downward trend from June, with the decline worsening compared to the previous month. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 31st, the cumulative decline in the main production area of Shandong this month was 12.80%. Manufacturers in Shandong have reduced their prices by over 300 yuan/ton this month. At present, the mainstream quotation for liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2400-2700 yuan/ton.

On the raw material side, according to the monthly rise and fall chart of the liquid ammonia industry chain in Shengyi Society, the industry chain shows a pattern of more declines and less increases, with weaker middle and lower reaches. Upstream natural gas prices have risen. But the boosting effect on downstream liquid ammonia is limited. On the one hand, coal ammonia companies are still affected by low coal prices, and their profits are still acceptable. In order to ensure that shipping companies are still willing to lower prices to attract the market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the decline of thermal coal this month is 0.32%. Overall, it creates a negative impact on the liquid ammonia market. At the same time, reflecting both supply and demand, the market still shows a relatively bearish trend.

On the supply side, there is high inventory pressure on enterprises, and in order to alleviate the pressure, factory prices continue to be lowered. On the one hand, as supply increases, manufacturers’ shipments slow down and inventory pressure rises. On the other hand, the large import volume and low-priced foreign sources have impacted the domestic market. Supply is in an oversupply situation. During the month, major factories in Shandong have repeatedly lowered the ex factory price of liquid ammonia by more than 300 yuan/ton.

From the demand side, downstream industries such as urea and compound fertilizers lack support, resulting in a decline in the overall product line. Urea and ammonium nitrate have experienced significant declines. According to monitoring, urea fell by 6.6% in July, and ammonium chloride fell by 8.27%. Downstream weakness has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance.

Market forecast: There will be little change in cost, especially in coal prices, which may continue to be weak. In the short term, the downstream urea and compound fertilizer market continues to be weak, and ammonia companies are nearing the end of destocking, which is expected to alleviate supply pressure in the near future. In the later stage, downstream agricultural demand will rebound, and the price of liquid ammonia will stop falling. In the later stage, it may gradually seek upward space.