Since the price of lithium carbonate fell in April, there has been no rebound trend in the price of lithium carbonate. As of the end of July, the quoted price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 93600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.3% from 116000 yuan/ton on April 1 and a decrease of 68% from the same period last year; The quotation for industrial grade lithium carbonate is 91000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12% from 107000 yuan/ton on April 1st and a decrease of 67% from the same period last year.

On the supply side: In the first half of the year, the supply of lithium resources was loose, overseas supply continued to increase, domestic lithium mining accelerated, and at the same time, the layout of lithium recycling and reuse was also accelerating, which was a negative impact on the supply side. In this situation, lithium carbonate enterprises choose to stop production and maintain prices. According to statistics, seven domestic production enterprises stopped production for maintenance in July, which is expected to reduce supply by 1400 tons. However, the price increase effect is not significant, and there is no significant improvement in the situation of oversupply on site.

Demand side: The new energy vehicle market fell short of expectations, with pure electric vehicle sales increasing by 11% year-on-year in the first half of the year, far behind the growth rate of plug-in hybrid vehicle sales (88%). Therefore, the actual growth rate of lithium carbonate consumption is much lower than the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales.

In terms of inventory: Currently, the inventory of lithium carbonate exceeds 110000 tons, reaching a new high. The high inventory has triggered a wait-and-see attitude in the downstream market. Due to price uncertainty, downstream enterprises generally choose to operate with low inventory and purchase on demand to reduce risks.

Positive policies: On July 25th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on “Several Measures to Strengthen Support for Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade in”. The document proposed that “an overall arrangement of about 300 billion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond funds will be made to strengthen support for large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in”, which is expected to drive the installation of 100GWH lithium batteries, but the actual impact still needs continued attention.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate analyst believes that the market surplus still exists, and there are no favorable factors in the short term. The price of lithium carbonate still has downward space, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

Recently, the domestic polyester staple fiber market prices have maintained a weak adjustment. As of July 29th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm mainstream polyester staple fiber factories in China was 7835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.05% from July 22nd. The decline in costs and weak demand have dealt a blow to the price of polyester staple fibers, leading to a downward trend in prices.

In terms of cost, the crude oil market is generally concerned about weak demand, and European and American crude oil futures fell to a six week low. As of July 26th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.16 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $80.28 per barrel.

At the same time, the prices of PTA, the main raw material for polyester staple fibers, and ethylene glycol, the secondary raw material, have both declined. The impact of PTA plant changes on its supply is limited, and the source of goods remains abundant, with an industry operating rate of around 82%. In terms of price, as of July 29th, the average spot market price in East China was 5850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.11% from early July.

On the demand side, the textile demand continues to be in a off-season state, and downstream yarn factories have accumulated finished product inventory. Under the conditions of high temperature and tight cash flow, the willingness to start production has decreased, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. Recently, the export of textiles and clothing has also been sluggish, and the operating rate of the weaving industry has continued to decline. The overall market orders are still dominated by small and scattered orders.

Business analysts believe that mainstream polyester staple fiber manufacturers plan to reduce production by 10% -15% by the end of this month, with an expected decrease in supply. The factory adheres to the fixed price model unchanged, supporting the market mentality. However, due to the drag of costs and declining demand, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers may maintain a narrow decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 15th to July 22nd, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 13125 yuan/ton to 13112.5 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.1% during the period. This week, the overall stability of the butadiene market is relatively weak, and downstream market demand has remained lukewarm, providing limited support for market sentiment. The overall market performance is weak, dragging down market quotes and reducing downstream market enthusiasm. There is a lack of actual transaction support. As of July 22, the self pickup price of East China’s butadiene diene is around 12950 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 50-100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The ex factory price of Sinopec remains stable at 13200 yuan/ton, while prices of other refineries have slightly decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Crude oil analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the short-term supply and demand game of crude oil will continue to play a role, and the supply side will be supported by the geopolitical situation and OPEC’s production control. There is uncertainty on the demand side in the future, and in the short term, there will be some pressure on demand due to extreme weather conditions in the United States; In addition, the condition during peak driving season still needs further inspection. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to further developments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, which will provide directional guidance for the future demand for crude oil. Overall, under the influence of both supply and demand, oil prices will continue to maintain a range oscillation pattern, and the amplitude may increase with the frequent occurrence of market news factors. As of July 19th, international crude oil futures have plummeted. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.64 per barrel, a decrease of $2.66 or 3.3%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.63 per barrel, a decrease of $2.48 or 2.9%.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains stable at 13200 yuan/ton. Fujian United and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s Unit 2 have not been restarted, while Dushanzi Petrochemical has been shut down for maintenance. The comprehensive operating rate in China has not changed much this week, and the supply of butadiene is relatively stable.

Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 30000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with 400 tons sold at a bidding price of 12500 yuan/ton.

The Northern Huajin 120000 tons/year butadiene plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on July 12th, and is scheduled to restart at the end of August, with the quotation suspended.

Dalian Hengli’s 140000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating stably, with normal export supply at a price of 13060 yuan/ton.

Shenhua Ning Coal’s 64000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is operating stably, with a small amount of supply for export at a price of 12480 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The downstream synthetic rubber market continued to weaken this week, with terminal demand maintaining rigid procurement. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, and prices of styrene butadiene and butadiene rubber have slightly declined this week. The overall intention of downstream procurement is weak, and we are currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The overall transaction volume is more in line with demand, and the market support is relatively weak. The inquiry mentality is slightly cautious.

On Friday, July 19th, the closing price of butadiene in foreign markets was mixed: the FOB price in South Korea was reported at $1545-1555 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton; China CFR reported 1555-1565 US dollars/ton, unchanged; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1170-1180/ton, down $20/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1065-1075 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

Market forecast: Currently, the production of butadiene is relatively stable, with no significant changes in the supply side, and the overall situation remains relatively stable. From the perspective of demand, downstream demand has always maintained strong support and price trends are weak. Downstream synthetic rubber enterprises have been affected by the decline in profits, and their purchasing enthusiasm has been significantly weakened recently. As a result, the market atmosphere is more wait-and-see. In the absence of obvious news on the supply and demand side, it is expected that the butadiene market will maintain a stable and weak trend in the short term, and there may still be room for slight downward exploration.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon was 12000 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and 12100 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a price increase of 0.83%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have remained stable this week, with some manufacturers raising their prices. Market inquiries are active, and most shipments are based on orders. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, with strong demand supporting prices. We will focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The transaction speed of the activated carbon market is accelerating, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall lead market (7.5-7.12) has declined this week. The average domestic market price was 19640 yuan/ton last week and 19480 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 0.81%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall. The overall market trend has been strong recently, with the market rising for four consecutive months. The lead ingot market has seen more recent gains than losses.

Macroscopically, data released by the US Department of Labor shows that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in June was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%; The core CPI in June was 3.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.4% and the previous value of 3.4%, indicating a comprehensive easing of price pressure. Federal Reserve’s Gulsby stated that the inflation report for June was excellent, and based on the data, a rate cut or a series of rate cuts could be considered. Any decision regarding interest rates will not take into account political factors. There is no need to panic about the unemployment situation, the job market is stable. As inflation decreases, maintaining interest rates unchanged means that the Federal Reserve is tightening policy. The labor market is cooling down, but still strong, and this does not seem like the beginning of an economic recession. Financial conditions are quite restrictive.

In terms of supply and demand: The tight supply situation in the mining sector has not been effectively improved, with a significant reduction in production and shutdown of primary and recycled lead smelting enterprises, a phased reduction in lead ingot supply, a low overall market volume, and sustained monthly processing fees in China. The price of waste batteries remains firm, and recycled lead enterprises in Anhui Province have reduced production. The maintenance of the primary lead refinery was completed in July, and it is expected to increase production by 20000 tons. On the demand side, downstream battery companies are under pressure to reduce production, resulting in a slight decline in operating rates. Some battery manufacturers have issued price increase notices.

Market outlook: Lead futures are running weakly, with recent deliveries and increased reluctance to sell, while individual quotes are showing strong upward momentum. Downstream battery companies urgently need to replenish their inventory. Under the support of tight supply and cost, the short-term downward space for lead prices is limited, but attention should be paid to the impact of imported lead inflows on the market.

Industry data

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 402.6 GWh in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. Among them, the cumulative sales of power batteries were 318.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%; The cumulative sales of other batteries reached 84.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 137.3%.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in June, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 963000 units, a month on month increase of 12.5% and a year-on-year increase of 32.2%; The export of new energy vehicles was 86000 units, a month on month decrease of 13.2% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. From January to June, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.339 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%; The export of new energy vehicles reached 605000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%.

On July 11th, the basic metal index was 1352 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 16.34% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 110.59% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

On July 11th, the color index was 1238 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 19.51% from the highest point of 1538 points during the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 103.95% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic isopropanol market slightly declined in early July. On July 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8660 yuan/ton, while on July 9th, the average price was 8590 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 0.81%.

In early July, the domestic isopropanol market slightly declined. The overall market situation is light, with poor trading on the exchange and a strong wait-and-see attitude. Downstream inquiries are average and there is a strong need to pick up goods. In addition, some enterprises such as Jinzhou Petrochemical and Ningbo Juhua have recently restarted their facilities, resulting in an overall increase in operating rates compared to last month. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 8400-8600 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8650-8700 yuan/ton. The quotation for South China is 8800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market declined in early July. On July 1st, the average price of acetone was 8062.5 yuan/ton, while on July 9th, the average price was 7767.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.66%. The center of gravity of acetone continued to decline, although the port inventory was only 26000 tons, demand was limited, and the follow-up of actual orders on the market was limited, resulting in flat transactions.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market has fluctuated and fallen this week. On July 1st, the average price of propylene in China was 7133.25 yuan/ton. This Friday, the average price was 7128.25 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.07%. At present, the inventory of enterprises is controllable, and downstream demand is improving. It is expected that the market will be strong and volatile in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the market price of isopropanol has slightly declined this week. The focus of the acetone market is downward, while the price of propylene market is fluctuating and falling, with weak cost support. In addition, the overall operating rate of isopropanol has improved, but downstream demand has not substantially improved, resulting in poor order acceptance. It is expected that the short-term isopropanol market will continue to operate weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8622 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price on July 8th was 8591 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.36% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10650 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price on July 8th was 10537 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.06% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8595 yuan/ton on July 1st, and the average price on July 8th was 8450 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.69% during the period.

Recently, the trend of polyethylene has been weak. Linear products have a narrow decline, while high-pressure and low-pressure products have a clear downward trend. The high volatility of oil prices provides support for polyethylene. The early maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and there are expectations of an increase in supply. In addition, imported HDPE is expected to increase in June. The demand for polyethylene is in the off-season, and there is insufficient follow-up on new orders. Downstream rigid demand procurement requires manufacturers and traders to offer discounts to promote transactions. Downstream resistance to high prices, limited market transactions, coupled with the low demand season for agricultural film, it is expected that polyethylene will experience weak fluctuations in the short term, with limited downward space.