According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has slightly increased in recent days (5.22-5.31). On May 31st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7560 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.80% from 7500 yuan/ton on May 22nd.
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International crude oil range fluctuates with weak support for toluene costs
Recently (5.22-5.31), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of May 30th, WTI07 contract settlement is $77.91 per barrel; Brent 08 contract settlement is $81.88 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has slightly rebounded, providing some support for the domestic market. As of May 30th and June, the CFR China toluene price was between 928-930 US dollars per ton.
The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for toluene is weak
Partial device maintenance has led to a slight decrease in domestic PX production, with PX production slightly dropping to around 740% as of late May. It is understood that Fuhai Chuang’s 800000 ton/year PX device will be shut down for maintenance starting from May 24th; Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5 million ton/year PX unit will be shut down for maintenance starting from May 24th. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly increased, providing strong support for the domestic PX market. As of May 30th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1032-1034 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1057-1059 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand
The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of May 30th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has slightly increased to around 70%.
The continued decline in port inventory has eased the pressure on the toluene market to some extent
The domestic toluene port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but still remains at a high level. As of May 30th, the toluene inventory in East China was 45000 tons, and the toluene inventory in South China was 3000 tons.
There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease
The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity. It is planned to restart in early June; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics resumed operations in late May. There are still some maintenance plans for aromatic hydrocarbon units in the later stage, and overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, the international crude oil market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, and there is still some support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the downstream demand for oil adjustment was lower than expected, and the demand for disproportionation reaction also slightly decreased; There are still maintenance plans for the toluene unit in the later stage, and it is expected that the pressure on the toluene supply side will continue to ease. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market may consolidate in a range in the later stage.
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