According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 21st, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market in Shandong was 9175 yuan/ton. Compared with February 15th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 9200 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%.

 

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From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (2.15-2.21), the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China, has experienced a narrow downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the cyclohexanone market remained stable, with decent support on the cost side and a relatively stable supply side. Downstream demand for essential purchases led to the consolidation and operation of the cyclohexanone market. As the weekend approaches, downstream demand is gradually slowing down, and some cyclohexanone factories have reduced their cyclohexanone shipment prices by 50-100 yuan/ton to maintain low inventory levels. On February 21st, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong, China was around 9150-9400 yuan/ton.

 

Cost wise: This week, the cost side raw material pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, providing stable cost support for cyclohexanone. On February 21st, the reference price of pure benzene was 7829 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.66% compared to February 1st (7553 yuan/ton).

 

Market analysis in the future

 

At present, most of the on-site inquiries for cyclohexanone are for essential purchases, and the mentality of the industry is average. The transmission between supply and demand is weak and constant. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 14th, the price of lead 1 # was 17002 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50% compared to the lead price of 16750 yuan/ton on February 1st.

 

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This week’s market analysis

 

The lead market in February mainly showed a gradual recovery of supply and demand after the Spring Festival. In early February, both the supply and demand sides of the market showed a flat performance, and the lead price fluctuated mainly due to macroeconomic news and financial push.

 

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, both the supply and demand sides of the lead market are gradually recovering. On the supply side, the production of primary lead and regenerated lead is gradually recovering, but the pace of regenerated lead production is relatively slow, which also affects the trend of lead prices to some extent.

 

Demand side

After the festival, lead battery enterprises will gradually resume production. Due to the limited reserve before the festival, it is expected that after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, there will be a demand for replenishment, which will help to digest the original lead inventory. However, it should be noted that the current lead-acid battery market has weak terminal consumption, and there has been no significant recovery in production enterprise orders. Lead consumption is still supported by rigid demand. ‌

 

As the festive atmosphere gradually dissipates, lead-acid battery companies are gradually resuming production. Since these enterprises have relatively limited stock of raw materials before the festival, it is expected that they will face some demand for stock replenishment after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). This demand will help to digest the current backlog of primary lead inventory in the market, thereby providing some support for lead prices.

 

However, it is worth noting that although lead-acid battery companies are resuming work and production, the current terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market is not strong. The order situation of production enterprises has not shown obvious signs of improvement, and the consumption of lead is still mainly based on essential needs. This means that although the demand for replenishment may have a positive impact on lead prices, the weakness of end consumption may still limit the upward space for lead prices.

 

comprehensive analysis

 

The current lead industry chain has entered the stage of comprehensive resumption of production, with upstream and downstream production capacity synchronously increasing. With the recovery of production capacity utilization rate in primary lead smelters and the improvement of supply of recycled lead raw materials and waste batteries, the market presents a dual growth pattern of supply and demand. Follow up market trends, pay attention to the inventory situation of lead ingots.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been running steadily this week. On February 10th, the market price of aniline was 9162 yuan/ton, and on February 14th, the price was 9162 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, a decrease of 16.61% compared to the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and Review

 

This week, the aniline market has been in a state of stagnation and consolidation, with weak downstream demand and increased inventory in some companies, resulting in a weakened willingness to raise prices. Some factories will be temporarily shut down during the week, which will have a relatively small impact on the market. Under the weak supply-demand situation, the aniline market is in a state of stagnation and consolidation.

 

Cost aspect: Pure benzene has shown a strong trend this week, with good shipments from Shandong’s local refineries. Shandong Lihua Yi’s 200000 ton pure benzene plant has begun planned maintenance, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price has increased by 100 to 7750 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene has risen, and the pressure on aniline costs has increased.

 

3、 Future expectations

 

The current market cost and sales pressure of aniline coexist, and under the influence of long and short factors, it is expected that there is a high possibility of short-term pressure on the market to push up aniline.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly declined recently (1.17-1.23). As of January 23, the spot rubber market in China was around 16640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59% from 16908 yuan/ton on January 17. Recently, there has been a narrow adjustment in raw material prices; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase slightly; As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking is gradually coming to an end, and market transactions are sluggish. In addition, the Shanghai rubber market has fluctuated and weakened this week, driving the natural rubber spot market to slightly decline.

 

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In January, foreign natural rubber was in the peak season for rubber cutting, and coupled with suitable weather, the supply of natural rubber raw materials abroad was sufficient, but the domestic market was in a period of cutting suspension. Supported by domestic demand, raw material prices stabilized at a high level. As of January 23rd, the price of Thai glue was 68.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than 68.30 baht/kg on the 17th.

 

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of January 19, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 520700 tons, an increase of 16400 tons compared to the previous period.

 

Supply and demand side: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream businesses are gradually taking a break, resulting in a gradual reduction in natural rubber inventory and sluggish market transactions.

 

Market forecast: The supply of foreign raw materials is gradually increasing in the current season, but the domestic market is in a period of suspension, which provides some support for natural rubber; As the Spring Festival approaches and stocking ends, market transactions will gradually decline; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate weakly in the short term.

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Price Trends in 2024

 

According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of hot process phosphoric acid on January 1st was 6580 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 6630 yuan/ton. In 2024, the domestic hot process phosphoric acid market rose by 0.76% for the whole year. The highest value of thermal phosphoric acid within the year was 6840 yuan/ton on October 31, and the lowest value within the year was 6340 yuan/ton on January 15.

 

According to data from Shengyi Society, the average market price of wet process phosphoric acid on January 1st was 6450 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 7000 yuan/ton. In 2024, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid market rose by 8.53% for the whole year. The highest value of wet process phosphoric acid was 7033 yuan/ton on September 14th, and the lowest value was 6350 yuan/ton on January 10th.

 

Market Analysis for 2024

 

The phosphoric acid market in 2024 will experience mixed ups and downs, with fluctuations being the main trend. In January, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. Before the Spring Festival, the market demand was sluggish, with few inquiries and relatively quiet transactions, and the market sentiment was mainly bearish. From February to April, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated and rose. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, and with the help of costs, phosphoric acid companies have raised their quotations. The market demand gradually follows after the holiday, with downstream essential procurement being the main focus. Wet process phosphoric acid spot supply is tight, while market demand is stable. From May to June, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support is insufficient. The phosphoric acid market has sufficient supply, but weak market demand. From July to October, the market price of phosphoric acid increased. Raw material yellow phosphorus is running at a high level, the supply of phosphoric acid market is tight, and the phosphoric acid market is running relatively strong. From October to December, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, cost support has weakened, and the market price of thermal phosphoric acid has fallen. Market trading is limited, and there are not many new transactions. Supported by downstream demand for wet process phosphoric acid, the market is strong.

 

According to the K-bar chart of 2024, it can be seen that the largest increase in phosphoric acid in 2024 was in August, with an increase of 2.47%. The largest decline of the year was in November, with a drop of 2.63%.

 

Market forecast after 2025

 

Supply situation

 

The total production capacity of phosphoric acid in China in 2024 is about 4.55 million tons. The production capacity of wet process phosphoric acid is about 3.48 million tons, and the production capacity of hot process phosphoric acid is about 1.07 million tons. In recent years, the production capacity and output of wet process phosphoric acid in China have shown an increasing trend. With the advancement of wet process phosphoric acid purification technology, the proportion of wet process phosphoric acid is gradually increasing. It is expected that the market share of wet process phosphoric acid will continue to increase in 2025, while the market share of hot process phosphoric acid will further decrease.

 

Export situation

 

The export volume of food grade phosphoric acid in China in 2024 is 348800 tons, a decrease of 15100 tons compared to the export volume in 2023. The export amount was 328 million US dollars, a decrease of 68 million US dollars from 2023. In recent years, foreign buyers have been more cautious, resulting in a slight decrease in export volume. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in the export market in 2025.

 

Demand situation

 

With the rapid development of the new energy and new materials industries in recent years, the demand for phosphoric acid has significantly increased. Promote the rapid development of technological innovation in the phosphoric acid industry, as well as further improve product quality and production efficiency. Under the pressure of strengthened environmental regulations, enterprises need to increase their environmental awareness and improve their production processes and technologies. It is expected that the demand for phosphoric acid market will continue to increase in 2025.

 

summary

 

In summary, the domestic phosphoric acid market will experience mixed ups and downs in 2024, with overall fluctuations being the main trend. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will maintain sufficient supply by 2025, and market demand will continue to increase, resulting in volatile market conditions. Under the influence of the country’s increased efforts in phosphorus chemical environmental protection, China’s phosphoric acid production technology will continue to be optimized and improved.

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This week, the epoxy propane market is stable with a moderate to strong adjustment. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 17th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8075 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.86% compared to the beginning of this month.

 

Price influencing factors:

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Supply side: With the gradual restart of enterprise facilities, the production of epichlorohydrin has increased. The on-site production facilities have gradually resumed operation. Individual load reduction maintenance of chlorohydrin method, Lihua Yi continues to operate at 60% load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical stops.

 

Raw material side: The prices of propylene and liquid chlorine have fluctuated this week. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 16th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7005.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.49% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton).

 

Downstream demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand sentiment is relatively cold, and there is insufficient follow-up on procurement. The market’s actual order trading is cold, and the main focus is on first-time purchases, with a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

 

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that with the restart and recovery of enterprise equipment, epoxy propane production has increased, and downstream demand side purchases are cautious and insufficient to follow up, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

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This week (1.1-1.10), there was a slight adjustment in dichloromethane. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was 2827 yuan/ton on January 10th, with a weekly increase of 1.53%.

 

The demand side improved during the week, with a slight increase in enterprise quotations and a decrease in costs. The on-site operating load has increased, and currently there is no pressure on enterprise inventory. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened, and the trend of inventory pressure is evident, which may pose an upward resistance to dichloromethane. On January 10th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2800-2830 yuan/ton.

 

Supply side: During the upward phase of the start-up load this week, there has been an increase in on-site supply. The following is the operation status of the enterprise’s methane chloride unit:

 

On the cost side, the methanol market has declined, with increased supply and improved trading atmosphere. On January 10th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2674.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.05% from the beginning of the month. The market situation of liquid chlorine in Shandong is stable.

 

On the demand side, the price of R32 is showing an upward trend, especially in the first quarter of 2025, due to the influence of orders from air conditioning manufacturers, the price is expected to rise again. It is reported that as of January 9, 2025, the price of R32 is 43000 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5% compared to the previous month. Other applications should maintain a strong demand for purchasing and restock at low prices.

 

Business analysts believe that the cost side market is weak, and the demand side refrigerant market is boosted by an upward trend. However, many industries are looking forward to low-priced purchases, and supply side inventories are showing an increasing trend. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate continued to operate under pressure at the end of the year, with weak fluctuations. As of December 31, the domestic price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 76400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.8% from the same period last month at 78600 yuan/ton; The domestic price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 78800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.96% from the same period last month at 81200 yuan/ton.

 

From the perspective of the supply side:

 

The production of lithium carbonate continued to rebound in November and December, especially with significant increases in the high operating rates of spodumene and lithium mica, keeping the supply running at a high level. But some lithium salt factories have Spring Festival maintenance plans, and it is expected that production will decrease.

 

From the perspective of demand side:

 

The operating rate of the top domestic ternary material factories in December was relatively high. In contrast, the reduction and shutdown of small and medium-sized ternary material factories are more obvious. Guided by the expectations of battery companies to rush to install and export power batteries, it is expected that the production scheduling of top ternary material companies will maintain a high level in January.

 

From the perspective of imports:

 

In November 2024, the import volume of lithium concentrate in China was 482500 tons, a decrease of 4% compared to the previous month. The decrease was mainly due to the decline in imports of Australian and Nigerian mines, but there was a significant increase in lithium imports from Brazil and Zimbabwe. From January to November 2024, a total of 5.215 million tons of lithium concentrate were imported, an increase of 35% compared to the same period last year. Lithium ore imports are still at a high level.

 

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that lithium salt factories may experience a decline in production after the year, coupled with continued high demand from downstream material factories. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience strong fluctuations at the beginning of the year, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 16th to December 23rd, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 10450 yuan/ton to 10837.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.71% during the cycle. This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise, and the available supply of goods in the spot market was generally tight. Holders of goods had a strong mentality of raising prices, and the spot market quotation was overall upward. Boosted by this news, spot market offers generally rose. But as prices continue to rise, downstream delivery capabilities gradually decline. Overall, the downstream market currently has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market will first rise and then stabilize this week. Sinopec will raise the price by 400 yuan/ton to 10900 yuan/ton during the cycle. As of December 23rd, the delivery price in Shandong region is 11250 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

 

Cost aspect: Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The protection of OPEC+production reduction atmosphere still exists, but the pessimistic demand will still suppress oil prices. Overall, the international crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of December 20th, the settlement price of the main international crude oil futures contract was $69.46 per barrel, an increase of $0.08 or 0.1%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.94 per barrel, an increase of $0.06 or 0.1%.

 

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 10900 yuan/ton as of the 23rd, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 10500 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

 

The 90000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit of Satellite Chemical is operating normally, with a reduction of 100 yuan/ton and an execution of 11000 yuan/ton.

 

Shenghong Refining’s 200000 tons/year butadiene plant is operating normally, with a reduction of 100 yuan/ton and an implementation of 11000 yuan/ton.

 

The 50000 tons/year butadiene unit of Dongming Petrochemical is operating normally, with 280 tons exported and a base price of 11300 yuan/ton.

 

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the rubber market has been operating steadily with a slight weakness this week, and there has been little change in market prices. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise significantly, styrene prices have slightly adjusted, and the cost center of styrene butadiene rubber has slightly increased. Downstream all steel tire production has slightly increased; The price fluctuation of styrene butadiene rubber is limited.

 

Market forecast: In terms of supply, the overall supply of butadiene has been tight in the near future, with fewer port sources and still strong market sentiment. From the perspective of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, and due to poor profits, production has slightly declined, providing strong support for the butadiene market. Overall, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for the butadiene market to continue to rise. Market sentiment tends to be wait-and-see, and it is expected that market prices will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the production of new facilities and the arrival of ports.

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I want to know why plasticizers are showing such a trend in 2024 and where they will go in 2025? We first need to understand the historical market situation of plasticizers, and the future trend of plasticizers is also closely related to their history.

 

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Review of Plasticizer Market over the Years

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of DOP has been continuously declining in 2024. As of December 20th, the price of DOP has dropped by 30% for the whole year of 2024, reaching the average annual level of 2017, and the DOP market has returned to the blue ocean. As of December 20, 2024, the DOP price was 8401.25 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.21% compared to the DOP price of 8383.33 yuan/ton on January 1, 2017. Compared to the average DOP price of 8509.94 yuan/ton in 2017, it has slightly decreased by 1.28%. It can be seen that the price of plasticizer DOP experienced significant peaks and valleys from 2017 to 2024, and most of the time DOP prices were at a high level, resulting in relatively high profits for DOP enterprises. However, with the decline in plasticizer prices in 2024, the profit of the plasticizer market rapidly declined, and the plasticizer market returned to the blue ocean. During these eight years, plasticizers have gone through six distinct stages of rise and fall.

 

Phase 1: Environmental impact, plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise

 

From 2017 to October 2018, the price of plasticizer DOP increased slightly. Affected by environmental protection and production reduction, plasticizer enterprises have seen a decrease in production, a reduction in plasticizer supply, and a fluctuating rise in plasticizer DOP prices.

 

Phase 2: Trade war leads to a decline in demand

 

From the fourth quarter of 2018 to 2019, with the stable operation of upstream and downstream enterprises in the plasticizer industry chain, coupled with intensified international trade disputes and a decline in demand, plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell in 2019. However, at the end of 2019, the outbreak of the epidemic led to a cliff like decline in demand, and in early April 2020, plasticizer prices reached their lowest point in the cycle.

 

Phase Three: Rising Prices of Plasticizers

 

From 2020 to August 2021, as the epidemic continued to develop, the operating capacity of plasticizer companies declined. In addition, the international market was deeply affected by the epidemic, and the operating capacity of enterprises plummeted sharply. However, the demand in the end consumer market remained stable, and the demand in the Chinese market surged. With the normalization of environmental protection in China, the operating capacity of plasticizer companies’ equipment was relatively low, and the supply was tight, with weak supply and strong demand. The price of plasticizers soared and reached a new high in the past 10 years in early August 2021.

 

Stage 4: Plasticizer prices fall back

 

From the second half of 2021 to 2022, international market demand tends to stabilize, coupled with the addition of new production capacity by domestic plasticizer enterprises, resulting in oversupply and weak demand among domestic plasticizer enterprises, leading to a rapid decline in plasticizer prices.

 

Stage 5: Plasticizer prices rebound and rise

 

Continuous maintenance has led to fluctuating prices of plasticizers in 2023. 2023 is a year of frequent accidents for plasticizer related enterprises, with continuous accidents in the upstream and downstream of the plasticizer industry chain, reduced supply from plasticizer enterprises, and fluctuating prices of plasticizers.

 

Stage 6: Plasticizer prices continue to decline

 

In 2024, plasticizer companies resumed production, plasticizer supply was sufficient, international market political crises continued, global economy weakened, demand fell, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell. As of December 19, 2024, plasticizer DOP prices fell to a level comparable to the average price in 2017, and the plasticizer market returned to the blue ocean.

 

The plasticizer market returns to the blue ocean in 2024

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen from the above analysis that the plasticizer market since 2017 is difficult to replicate, and the high price support of plasticizers is no longer there. The price of plasticizer DOP will continue to decline in 2024. Although the price of plasticizer DOP briefly increased in April, May, September, and October due to the impact of peak and off peak seasons, the overall downward trend is difficult to change. As of December 20th, the price of plasticizer DOP fell by 30.52% for the whole year of 2024, leading the decline in the chemical industry sector. The relative balance of supply and demand in the plasticizer industry chain in 2024, coupled with a decrease in raw material prices, is the main reason for the decline in DOP prices.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the correlation between plasticizer DOP and isooctanol is as high as 0.960 in 2024, indicating a highly positive correlation. The price of plasticizer DOP will decline with the decrease in isooctanol prices. However, from the rise and fall of isooctanol and DOP, it can be seen that the decline of DOP is significantly slower than that of isooctanol. In 2024, DOP has a larger profit margin, and DOP enterprises have a higher enthusiasm for starting production, leading to the normalization of DOP oversupply. The expected supply and demand of plasticizers in 2025 are relatively balanced, and the price trend of plasticizers is closely related to raw material prices. With the release of raw material costs in 2025, there will be significant downward pressure on DOP in the future market.

 

In terms of raw materials

In 2024, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the price of isooctanol was 8100 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.65% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on December 9th. From the second half of 2023 to 2024, isooctanol enterprises will add about 2.5 million tons of production capacity, and new isooctanol production capacity will be put into operation one after another, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol supply. The downstream demand increment is not as significant as the octanol increment, and the supply increment of isooctanol is greater than the demand increment. The downward pressure on isooctanol has increased, and the price of isooctanol will fluctuate significantly in 2024. In 2025, with the stable production of new production capacity of isooctanol, the market for isooctanol will gradually shift from supply shortage to oversupply, and there will still be downward pressure on isooctanol in 2025.

 

The price of phthalic anhydride will first rise and then fall in 2024

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 6587.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 14.03% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on January 1st, which was 7662.50 yuan/ton. In 2024, the addition and elimination of production capacity in the domestic phthalic anhydride industry will coexist, and phased overcapacity will become the norm. The trend of phthalic anhydride is positively correlated with the trend of raw material ortho benzene. The rise in phthalic anhydride prices in the first half of the year and the fall in prices in the second half of the year are closely related to the rise and fall of ortho benzene prices. In the second half of the year, Brazil’s anti-dumping measures against Chinese phthalic anhydride, coupled with India’s mandatory BIS certification for Chinese made phthalic anhydride starting from the second half of 2023, have hindered the two major export destinations, resulting in a significant drop in China’s export volume, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40%. Due to oversupply and declining demand, the rise of phthalic anhydride in 2025 will be weak.

 

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of upstream raw materials, there is an increase in production capacity and supply of isooctanol, and the profits of isooctanol enterprises are relatively high. Therefore, there is still room for price reduction of isooctanol; Excess production capacity of phthalic anhydride has become the norm, coupled with export restrictions, resulting in significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride; In terms of supply and demand of plasticizers, on the supply side, there is overcapacity and sufficient supply of plasticizers, while on the demand side, the market is weak and demand support is limited. Domestic plasticizer prices are relatively low, which is favorable for exports. There is some support for exports, but overall demand for plasticizers is relatively stagnant with limited upward support. In terms of downstream, the international economic environment has not shown significant improvement, the future policy direction of the United States is uncertain, and the market expectations for the future remain weak, with weak support for the demand for plasticizers. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; The economy may recover to a certain extent in 2025, but the overall economic weakness still exists, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak. Coupled with oversupply, it is expected that the plasticizer industry chain will consolidate at a low level in the future, and plasticizer profits will be further compressed. Plasticizer companies may struggle to survive in the blue ocean in 2025.

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