1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of October 18th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to the same period last week. The price of cyclohexane remained relatively strong this week, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders, active shipments, decent downstream demand, slow inventory consumption, and overall market purchasing enthusiasm.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the pure benzene market has been mainly weak this week. Currently, the atmosphere of on-site negotiations is light, and the crude oil market is sluggish. The cost side of cyclohexane lacks favorable support, and the price of pure benzene has followed the weakness of crude oil. The main issue is the destocking of port inventory. However, there is a large accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. The local refining market in Shandong continues to decline.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term upward momentum of the cyclohexane market price is expected to be limited, and the current trend will be maintained.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda has increased after the holiday. The average price in the Shandong market was 833 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and around 891 yuan/ton on Sunday. The overall price increased by 6.96%, but decreased by 12.39% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased after the holiday. Currently, the price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is on the rise, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion exchange membrane alkali being around 920-980 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is rising, and the downstream main procurement has increased by about 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali is around 860-950 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, caustic soda manufacturers will adjust their quotations flexibly according to their own needs. After the holiday, the expected maintenance of chlor alkali facilities in Shandong region, coupled with the low liquid chlorine market, has led to a decline in profits for chlor alkali enterprises, causing caustic soda manufacturers to raise prices. In the short term, the domestic price of alumina continues to show a stable to strong trend, and the production lines of alumina plants maintain high load production for a long time, resulting in good demand for caustic soda and driving up the price of caustic soda.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been on the rise, indicating a trend in the market. At present, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low, the number of maintenance enterprises in the main production areas is increasing, and the downstream demand for alumina is good. It cannot be ruled out that there may be a price increase in the market. Overall, it is expected to operate mainly in the later stage or increase, depending on downstream market demand.

In September 2024, the domestic adhesive short fiber market showed an upward trend, with the cost of upstream raw material dissolution pulp remaining firm and stable, and cost support still remaining; The manufacturer’s inventory is not high; Downstream personnel will follow up on cotton yarn as needed. At the beginning of the month, manufacturers signed a new round of orders, and downstream manufacturers inquired about orders and prices one after another. With the interweaving of information on the market, there was a certain confidence in the “Golden Nine”, and manufacturers gradually raised prices by 100-200 yuan/ton; In mid to late month, manufacturers mainly execute orders, and adhesive short fibers operate steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the trend of the adhesive short fiber market is expected to rise in September 2024. As of September 30th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.04%.

Cost side support remains stable

In September, the market price of the main raw material dissolved pulp in the upstream remained firm and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolved pulp is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of broad-leaved pulp in the external market is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The cost side of the adhesive short fiber market is supported by favorable factors and remains stable.

Stable supply, low inventory

The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.

The demand has not shown significant improvement

Entering the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there are no obvious signs of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding onto essential orders, and the demand side recovery is not as expected.

Downstream cotton yarn market

In September 2024, the price of cotton yarn slightly increased with the rise of viscose staple fiber. As of September 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17575 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.15%.

Future forecast

The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber remains firm and stable, with relatively tight supply in the market. In October, there is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but there will be no significant improvement in the short-term demand side. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers will mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with little price fluctuation. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13800 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizer DOP increased in a “W” pattern in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8851.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.26% compared to the DOP price of 8963.75 yuan/ton on September 23rd; Compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 9th, it has increased by 4.58%; Compared to September 1st, the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 1.43%. In September, the DOP price first rose and then fell, with a “W” – shaped oscillating rise in DOP prices. The expected increase in operating rate of plasticizer enterprises leads to an increase in demand for plasticizers; In addition, due to stocking up before the National Day holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose, but the gold nine color was insufficient, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover enough. The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, and the price of plasticizers rose in a “W” shape.

Slow recovery of downstream demand

The concentrated maintenance season for the PVC paste resin industry in 2024 has come to an end, and the maintenance losses in the PVC paste resin industry will gradually recover. The production of the PVC paste resin industry will gradually return to stability, and the total supply of the industry will gradually increase, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers. The peak season of the Golden September and Silver October is not prosperous, and the fulfillment of terminal demand is not as expected. The overall load of downstream production is low. The central bank’s reserve requirement ratio reduction measures have driven a rebound in the commodity market. The favorable macroeconomic policies of the country stimulate the growth of the Chinese market, and there are expectations of recovery in the medium and long term demand. However, the recovery of downstream demand in the short term is still relatively slow, and the recovery of demand for plasticizers is slow.

Raw material costs fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of isooctanol was 8416.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.36% from the price of 8800 yuan/ton on September 23rd; Compared to September 1st, the price of isooctanol increased by 5.43% to 7983.33 yuan/ton. The peak season of Golden September is approaching, and the demand for isooctanol is recovering. In addition, the pre holiday stocking of isooctanol has led to a fluctuating rise in its price; But the recovery of demand for Jinjiu is limited, and the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7225 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on September 1st. At the end of September, the price of ortho xylene was 7100 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 10.13% compared to the price of ortho xylene on September 1, which was 7900 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with frequent shutdowns of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing tight supply and queuing for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride. There is still significant downward pressure and upward momentum for phthalic anhydride.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell in September, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The support for the increase in plasticizer DOP cost still exists; In terms of supply, the increase in production of plasticizer DOP manufacturers is limited, and DOP manufacturers continue to operate at low loads, resulting in limited increase in DOP supply; In terms of demand, favorable policies and the plasticizer market have boosted expectations for recovery in the medium to long term, while the recovery of downstream demand in the short term is still relatively slow. Expected future price fluctuation and rise of plasticizer DOP

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexane remained stable this week, with downstream demand falling short of expectations. The overall market shipment was slow, inventory remained high, and downstream purchases were mainly for essential needs. Many operators adopted a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the pure benzene market has been mainly weak this week. Yesterday, the price delivery mentality was positive, with a narrow downward trend. As of now, the upstream pure benzene price has slightly rebounded, with a narrow upward trend. Dongying Fuhaiweilian Petrochemical’s pure benzene price has been raised by 20 yuan, with a price of 8413 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that it is expected that the market price of cyclohexane will maintain its current trend in the short term, and the price will mainly operate steadily.

Market Overview

This week, the melamine market has been volatile, and overall, the fundamentals are weak. As of September 12th, the reference price of melamine was 6762.50, a decrease of 0.18% compared to September 1st (6775.00). Prices in the northern region continue to decline, and some companies adjust their prices based on their own orders. Some regions have set new lows, and some companies with good orders have experienced significant price reductions due to the overall lack of confidence among market participants. In the future, some facilities in the northern region will undergo maintenance, resulting in reduced supply or providing some support for prices.

Supply side

This week, the domestic urea market continued to decline and consolidate, with no signs of stopping the decline. The focus of transactions continued to shift downwards, and overall market transactions remained average! As of September 13th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2117.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.58% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton). The daily production of urea maintains a high level of operation, and currently the urea market is difficult to find good news.

In terms of demand

The ‘Golden September’ has arrived, but there has been no significant improvement in domestic demand, with on-demand procurement being the main focus, making it difficult for the melamine market to experience any fluctuations. In addition, the raw material urea market continues to be weak, and the cost support for the melamine market is limited.

Overall, demand is still weak, and downstream industries such as sheet metal are difficult to boost in the short term. Downstream procurement tends to be cautious; In terms of supply, although the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased compared to the past, the overall market supply is still relatively high; In terms of raw material urea, the current urea price is still low, which temporarily makes it difficult to form strong support for the melamine market. It is expected that the melamine market will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and continuous attention should be paid to the operating conditions of enterprises and changes in urea prices.

Fall first and then rise in August

The price of ethylene glycol first fell and then rose in August. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4678.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from August 1st. The prices in each region are as follows:

The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4600-4795 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4600 yuan/ton.

On August 30, 2024, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port was close to low and far from high. The paper cargo basis quotation for the 01 contract this week ranges from -1 to+3; The basis of forward contracts is relatively strong, with a base price of 12-18 yuan/ton in September and 14-22 yuan/ton in October.

On August 30th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4250-4350 yuan/ton, including tax.

On August 29, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $564/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $556/ton. The domestic landed price has slightly increased.

List of August Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory Data

As of August 30, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 673300 tons, an increase of 57000 tons compared to the total spot inventory of 616300 tons on August 1.

We will first go to the warehouse and then accumulate inventory within the month, mainly due to the concentrated arrival of goods at the port last week, resulting in accumulated inventory data at the port. This week’s expectations for the port have declined, leading to a decrease in inventory data.

Reasons for the rebound of ethylene glycol prices in August:

Negative expectations on the supply side of market transactions

On the supply side, the scale of production reduction in ethylene glycol plants has recently expanded, partly due to the favorable price difference of EO conversion, achieving production capacity conversion, and partly due to planned shutdown and maintenance. On the demand side, downstream demand is expected to be strong during the peak season, with a turning point in the peak season for gold and silver, and a slight rebound in downstream operating rates.

Future expectations

At present, the absolute amount of explicit inventory in ports is still relatively low. This provides some support for the price of ethylene glycol.

It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will experience strong fluctuations in the short term, but the price ceiling will narrow.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on August 23 was 908 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.30% compared to the average price of 896 yuan/ton on August 16.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price first rose and then fell, with an overall price increase. This week, the operating rate of coking enterprises is relatively low, and some enterprises have limited production. The operating rate of internal level enterprises has also decreased. At the beginning of the week, market demand remained stable, downstream inquiries increased, the focus of ammonium sulfate transactions shifted upward, and prices rose. Recently, the market has started to consolidate, with minor fluctuations being the main trend. As of August 23rd, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 895-950 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At present, the export market is improving and the market trading atmosphere is improving. It is expected that there is still room for growth in the domestic ammonium sulfate market after a slight consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline rose and then fell back this week. On August 12th, the market price of aniline was 10550 yuan/ton, and on August 16th it was 10120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.05% compared to last week and 9.13% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market was under pressure and fell. Last week, the aniline market rose three times, but due to high prices and weak downstream demand, the aniline market fell back after rising prices to stimulate sales. With the decline in prices, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere downstream, and the enthusiasm for purchasing has decreased. Upstream inventory is low, and there is a clear willingness to raise prices.

Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has shown a strong trend, with increased support for aniline. On August 12th, the average price of pure benzene was 8464 yuan/ton, and on August 16th, the average price of pure benzene was 8534 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

The current aniline market is stable in terms of purchase and sales, with a strong upstream price mentality and downstream demand entering the market. Supply and demand remain stable, and it is expected that the aniline market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and consolidated in early August, with various spot prices of different brands fluctuating. As of August 12th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16400 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.40 compared to August 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A was relatively weak in early August. The remote international crude oil price increase is suppressed by weak demand prospects, while the direct PC raw materials phenol and acetone both weaken, and the support for bisphenol A on the raw material side weakens. In addition, there is an expected increase in the load of the bisphenol A industry, with a trend of increasing supply and loose support on the supply side. The downstream production of the two main forces has weakened, with weak inventory and rigid demand procurement, resulting in a slowdown in the liquidity of the supply of goods. Overall, the support of bisphenol A for PC costs has decreased.

On the supply side: Since August, the overall operating rate of PC in China has remained stable with slight increases, and the industry average operating rate has narrowly increased to around 73.16% compared to the end of July. In the early stage, spot prices fell to the lowest point of the year, and manufacturers increased their bottom building operations by raising prices. The ex factory pricing remained firm, and some auction houses were sold at a premium. The scale of the future maintenance plan is average, and the industry load is stable with an upward trend. The supply of domestic goods will further increase. The on-site supply of goods will still remain abundant, and overall, the market supply side provides moderate support for PC prices.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern did not show any improvement in early August, and the overall trend remained weak compared to the previous period. The main logic of procurement is biased towards weak rigid demand, with factories taking goods to maintain production. Downstream enterprises have low loads, weak stocking enthusiasm, and a narrow decline in consumption. Buyers have some resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market fluctuated weakly in early August. The upstream bisphenol A market has weakened, and the support for PC costs has weakened. The load of domestic aggregation plants is stable, with limited changes in supply side factors. At present, PC prices are still in the low point range of the year, and the market has limited decline due to bottoming out and forming a bottoming force. However, considering the high inventory pressure on PC society and the difficult supply-demand contradiction in the market, it is expected that the PC market will continue to operate at a low level in the short term.