Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid July, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China slightly increased and then fluctuated and decreased. On the 11th, the market reported around 14257 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, it reported around 14214 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.3% in the past ten days. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have remained stable and slightly decreased in the middle of the month. Polyacrylamide enterprises are operating normally, with sufficient supply of goods in the market, and downstream demand is still average. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is relatively weak.

As shown in the figure, in the early third quarter of 2023, China’s polyacrylamide market remained stable with a slight decline, which was amplified compared to the decline in June.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of acrylonitrile in mid July dropped from 8137 yuan/ton to 8025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%. The raw material propylene market in Shandong has experienced a fluctuating trend due to the impact of news and demand, with a first up and then down trend, and a narrow consolidation of the cost side; Multiple downstream industries of acrylonitrile face weak demand support in the short term, which is difficult to improve; At present, the supply side pressure has slightly eased, and the demand side is supported, but it is difficult to significantly strengthen. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market slightly declined in mid July, from 6325 yuan/ton to 6250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19%. Recently, the raw material propylene market has been fluctuating, with unstable cost support, low production capacity utilization, and average demand. Procurement is the main demand, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market will operate in a narrow range in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market in mid July fell first and then rose. Among them, on the 11th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4056 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, the average price was 4148 yuan/ton, with a ten-day increase of 2.27%.

Future forecast: The prices of raw materials will remain stable and slightly decline this week, with a slight increase in the fuel market and unstable costs for polyacrylamide raw materials. Under the current industry situation, enterprise production is normal, production inventory is sufficient, and downstream demand continues to be low, resulting in poor market transactions. Regarding the future market, analysis suggests that polyacrylamide will continue to maintain a stable and slightly weak market trend in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from July 10 to July 17, 2023, the auction price of crude benzene increased from 5631.25 yuan/ton last weekend to 5938.75 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 5.46%.

Crude oil: supported by positive factors in the international oil market, on the one hand, the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) cut production, increasing supply concerns, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced new production reduction measures, and the Saudi Energy Ministry announced that it would extend the policy of an additional 1 million barrels/day production reduction in July to August; The Russian Ministry of Energy has also confirmed a reduction of 500000 barrels per day in oil exports in August, bringing the total production reduction of the OPEC+alliance to approximately 5 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 5% of global oil demand. On the other hand, the United States Department of Energy’s plan to replenish the strategic oil reserve also warmed up the oil market. On July 7, the US announced that it would purchase an additional 6 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic oil reserve. The procurement plan will be carried out in October and November. Finally, the US dollar strengthened, Asian demand growth boosted international oil prices, supported by demand in the summer peak oil season, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data report on Wednesday showed a rapid decline in crude oil inventories. Multiple positive factors support the upward trend of international oil prices.

As of July 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.89 per barrel, an increase of $1.14 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.36 per barrel, an increase of $1.25 or 1.6%. Inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, coupled with seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries, heating up the oil market.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 300 yuan/ton from July 10th to July 17th, 2023, with a current implementation of 6600 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7100 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 10th, the price of pure benzene was 6378 yuan/ton, and on Friday (July 14th), the price of pure benzene was 6396 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% compared to last week and a decrease of 29.77% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen by 4.78% this week.

In terms of industrial chain, both international crude oil and styrene markets strengthened during the cycle, driving the pure benzene market with a 4.78% increase during the week. Sinopec has raised the listing price of pure benzene twice in a row to 6600 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton, once again boosting the market mentality of the industrial chain, and the prices of industrial chain commodities have generally increased.

During this cycle, the auction price of crude benzene has collectively strengthened, with prices ranging from 6010 to 6015 yuan/ton in Shandong region, an increase of 330 yuan/ton. The Shanxi region implemented a price increase of RMB 5850-5910 per ton, with an increase of RMB 250-260 per ton, resulting in a narrowing of the price difference in the main domestic production areas. In terms of supply, the operating rate of coking enterprises this week is still around 75%, and the supply of crude benzene has not changed much compared to the previous period, with supply slightly tight. In terms of demand, recent hydrogenation benzene enterprises have slightly reduced their operations, and demand has slightly declined. The price of hydrogenation benzene in the main production areas was between 6400 and 6450 yuan/ton during the week, with an increase of 200 to 250 yuan/ton. The demand for crude benzene is still acceptable. Overall, the strengthening of crude oil and styrene has driven the market mentality of the industrial chain, and the overall strength of the industrial chain this week. There is still an upward expectation in the future industrial chain, and it is expected that the market will remain stable with a strong trend, with little room for growth.

Acetic anhydride prices have risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 14th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5187.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.53% compared to the price of 4962.50 yuan/ton on July 7th last weekend; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 3.75% compared to 5000 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of raw material acetic acid has increased, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, some acetic anhydride manufacturers have shut down or reduced production, the supply of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride has fluctuated and increased.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of July 14th, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.18% compared to the price of 2966.67 yuan/ton on July 7th last weekend; The price of acetic acid increased by 9.25% compared to 2883.33 yuan/ton on July 1st. Some acetic acid enterprises have unplanned parking, resulting in a decrease in acetic acid supply and stable demand. The price of acetic acid has significantly increased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has increased. The driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride in the future is increasing.

Future prospects

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of the Business Society, in terms of cost, some acetic acid companies have unplanned parking, while the demand side is stable, resulting in an overall upward trend in the acetic acid market; In terms of construction, some acetic anhydride manufacturers have shut down or reduced production, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride supply. However, downstream construction is temporarily stable, and demand is stable, increasing the upward momentum of acetic anhydride. Overall, as the cost of acetic anhydride increases and the supply decreases, it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of July 13th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold and the downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up profits and taken orders, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The enterprise quotation is Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 14500 yuan/ton.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On July 12th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 654 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 38.30% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 23.86% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 11th, the DBP price was 8887.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% compared to the price of 8787.50 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of raw materials fluctuated and increased, and the cost of plasticizer DBP increased. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9600 yuan/ton on July 11th, an increase of 2.67% compared to 9350 yuan/ton on July 1st. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, the cost of plasticizer products increased, and the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 11th, the price of n-butanol was 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% compared to the price of 7316.67 yuan/ton on July 1st. In July, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and increased, with sufficient supply and weak demand for n-butanol. The cost of plasticizers increased, and the upward momentum of DBP increased. In the future, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in July, the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol fluctuated and increased, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DBP products and an increase in DBP’s upward momentum. Overall, the supply of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol is sufficient, DBP costs are rising, and demand for plasticizers is weak. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

In the first half of 2023, Adipic acid rose at the beginning of the year, and then began to fluctuate and decline. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, Adipic acid fell by nearly 10% in the first half of the year. The price dropped from 11000 yuan at the beginning of the year to 9000 yuan at the end of June. The main reason is the contradiction between supply and demand and the decline in costs.

Industrial chain

In the first half of 2023, all products in the Adipic acid industry chain will decline, with an average decline. The upstream product Cyclohexanone had the largest decline, exceeding 12%, while Adipic acid and downstream PA66 had a decline of nearly 10%.

Specifically

In January, the upstream raw material pure benzene increased, resulting in good cost benefits; The supply side is tight, and low market inventory provides support. Adipic acid was the only market in the first half of the year.

In March and March, Adipic acid continued to decline, mainly due to increased supply and relatively low demand. Haili, Taihua, and Shenma have all resumed their dual line operations, with significant increases in supply and a significant oversupply in the market. But there is no significant growth point on the demand side. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to a continuous decline in prices.

In the first ten days of April May, the price of Adipic acid temporarily stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The main reason is that cost benefits have boosted and supply pressure has eased. Upstream pure benzene took the lead and saw a significant increase in prices in early April, with a nearly 4% increase in the first week of April. The overall operating rate of superimposed Adipic acid decreased slightly, the supply decreased slightly, and the supply pressure was relieved.

Since the middle of May, Adipic acid has returned to the downward channel, mainly due to the exhaustion of cost advantages and the weak continuity of supply and demand. Upstream pure benzene experienced a significant decline in May, with a monthly decline of 11.75%. Supply side: Due to the frequent resumption of plant work and increased supply pressure, the overall operating rate has slightly rebounded, rising from 50% in April to 6.5%. However, the demand side is exceptionally sluggish, and downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, with no volume of orders, ensuring normal start-up demand. Terminal demand has not really improved. The weak market has been postponed until the end of June.

Future prospects

With regard to the future market, Adipic acid analysts from the business community believe that, on the cost side, the United States may still raise interest rates twice in the second half of the year, and the macro side is still suppressed. Under the game of tight supply and slow demand, the upstream crude oil may maintain a neutral price. This will have a certain price suppression on domestic petrochemical products. In the second half of the year, pure benzene or Cyclohexanone in the upstream of Adipic acid may not have a big market.

From both sides of supply and demand: on the supply side, the operating rate of Adipic acid currently remains between 65-70%, which is higher than that in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it is expected that manufacturers still have maintenance plans, especially in August and September, routine maintenance will increase, and the operating rate of manufacturers will change greatly. It is expected that the lowest operating rate will be 50%. On the demand side, from the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter, the market will also open up for the traditional peak season, Therefore, it is expected that there will still be an opportunity for the market to rise in the second half of the third quarter. It is expected that by the end of the fourth quarter, the market will gradually return to neutrality and prices will moderately seek downward space. On the whole, it is expected that Adipic acid will go out of the market of rising first and then falling in the second half of the year.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine has slightly increased this week. On July 3rd, the average market price of bromine was 18000 yuan/ton. On July 7th, the average market price of bromine was 18200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 68.75%. On July 6th, the bromine commodity index was 63.86, an increase of 0.7 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 73.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 8.38% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have slightly increased this week. The mainstream market price in Shandong region is around 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the overall market is stable with minor fluctuations. A large bromine enterprise in Shandong province has been shut down for one week for maintenance. However, the overall trading atmosphere in the bromine market is light, with no significant increase in downstream support. Recently, the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand, and the attitude of the bromine industry is generally average. The price adjustment of bromine enterprises is mainly supported by costs, and downstream manufacturers are buying at a moderate price.

In terms of raw materials: The domestic sulfur market is on the rise, with an average market price of 713.33 yuan/ton on July 3rd and 730 yuan/ton on July 7th, with a price increase of 2.34% and a year-on-year decrease of 76.95%. The inventory of manufacturers is maintained rationally, downstream demand is insufficient, and the enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is not good. A small amount of trading is followed up according to demand, and the market negotiation atmosphere is weak. The sulfur market is on the sidelines.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will stabilize slightly in the near future, and the upstream sulfur price will rise. The demand for downstream flame retardants and intermediates in the bromine industry will continue to be average in the near future. Bromine enterprises will adjust their prices slightly due to cost support, and the overall operation of the industry will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis. Based on the comprehensive supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term bromine price will consolidate and operate, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining and hydrogenation Naphtha mainstream was 7729.00 yuan/ton, up 1.81% from 7589.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local refining and hydrogenation Naphtha fell after rising.

As of June 30, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run Naphtha mainstream was 7611.50 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from 7334.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the local straight run Naphtha fell after rising.

On June 29, the Naphtha commodity index was 96.62, down 0.96 points from yesterday, down 20.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and up 128.74% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: In June, the price of locally refined Naphtha rose first and then fell. At present, the mainstream price of locally refined hydrogenated Naphtha is about 7700-7900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run Naphtha is about 7600-7800 yuan/ton. In the first ten days of June, the terminal was reformed and ethylene was released in a centralized way. The terminal of Naphtha market just needed support. The market turnover was good and the refinery actively pushed up. In late June, the restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with light market trading and refineries reducing prices for shipments. As of the week ending June 27th, Singapore’s fuel inventory increased by 1.859 million barrels, reaching a two-week high of 20.394 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory increased by 248000 barrels, reaching a two week high of 7.98 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory decreased by 105000 barrels to a nearly six-month low of 14.626 million barrels.

Upstream: The international crude oil market fluctuated in June. On the one hand, based on the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rate hikes have not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure has increased, putting pressure on the oil market. On the other hand, OPEC+has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China’s refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted.

Downstream: The price of toluene fluctuated and declined in June. On June 1st, the price of toluene was 7150 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 7060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. In June, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and decreased. On June 1st, the price of mixed xylene was 7430 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, it was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21%. The price of P-Xylene rose slightly in June. As of June 30, the ex factory price of P-Xylene in China was 8250 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from 8200 yuan/ton on June 1.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business society, recently, Naphtha terminal of local refining has been restructured, ethylene demand has continued to be weak, market turnover has been light, and refineries have reduced prices for shipment. It is expected that Naphtha of local refining will decline slightly in the near future.

In June 2023, the price of viscose staple fibers remained stable and slightly decreased, and the entire industry chain was operating in a weak position. Prices fell, resulting in poor demand performance. Downstream cotton yarn factories had weak purchasing power, and bearish sentiment continued to decline. There were not many actual transactions, and the overall market was waiting for the introduction of price policies from high-end manufacturers. Except for some factories with inventory pressure, other manufacturers are relatively controllable. The price of raw material Dissolving pulp has weakened, and the overall cost support has weakened. The downstream cotton yarn trading has slowed down, and the production enthusiasm of the yarn factory is not high due to losses. The price center has slightly declined, and the overall operating load has a downward trend.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable and slightly decreased in June. As of June 30th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly decrease of 1.05%.

Raw material market

In June, the price center of raw material Dissolving pulp weakened. Domestic Dissolving pulp: two manufacturers in Shandong and Hunan produced broadleaf Dissolving pulp. The price of imported Dissolving pulp has been lowered. The transaction of broad-leaved Dissolving pulp is 870-880 dollars/ton, and that of coniferous Dissolving pulp is 880 dollars/ton.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Chart of the price trend of human cotton yarn

The downstream demand for human cotton yarn is light, and the shipment of yarn factories is slowing down, especially for ring spinning and vortex spinning. The overall negotiation space has increased, the market has weakened, prices have declined, and transactions are average. The pressure on product inventory is gradually increasing, and the overall operating load has a downward trend. Under inventory pressure in some enterprises, there is a phenomenon of price reduction and promotion. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class products) was 17400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the textile terminal market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

Future Market Forecast

The overall buying and selling atmosphere in the short-term market is difficult to improve, and costs are weakening. Without significant improvement in terminal demand, the market will enter a wait-and-see adjustment period. The market is bearish in July, and analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be weak, stable, and volatile in the short term.

Weak stability of ethylene oxide prices in June

According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic Spot market will be 6000 yuan/ton on June 29, 2023, which will be the same as that at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer prices have slightly increased, and market participants believe that the price increase may stimulate the enthusiasm of monomer enterprises to start construction, thus providing some positive support for the ethylene oxide market.

Overview of Fundamentals

At the end of last month, large factories lowered their prices by 500 yuan/ton. In June, epoxy ethane basically maintained a horizontal operation of 6000 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, Taixing Jinyan underwent maintenance, Liaoyang Petrochemical temporarily suspended production, Sanjiang Chemical, Yangzi Petrochemical and other companies reduced production and operation; Due to the force majeure, the load of Zhongke device dropped to a low level, resulting in the gradual tightening of supply in South China. After returning to Taixing after the holiday, Jinyan began to resume production, and the overall capacity utilization rate of ethylene oxide slightly improved.