According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of September 19th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, compared to the same period last week when prices remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Factories are offering discounts and taking orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On September 18th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 712 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 32.83% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 34.85% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly decreased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3333.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.50%, and the weekend price decreased by 7.83% year-on-year. On September 17th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 87.34, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 58.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 57.40% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

The upstream blue charcoal market is temporarily stable, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1100-1230 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 6366.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6280.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.35%. Weekend prices fell by 2.48% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In late September, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal is temporarily stable, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late September, with consolidation being the main trend.

Price trend

In September, the domestic PA6 market in China was positive, with spot prices generally rising. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of September 15th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14775 yuan/ton, a decrease of+4.79% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has increased significantly recently. There has been a significant increase in upstream pure benzene, and the cost of caprolactam has been boosted. In addition, the market trading remained relatively active in the early stage, and under the dual benefits, caprolactam continued to rise. The overall fundamentals are improving, and it is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term, providing strong support for the PA6 market.

On the supply side:

The production enterprises have been operating horizontally in terms of load in this cycle, with an average operating rate of around 75% in China. The market supply is relatively flat compared to the previous period, but the inventory position continues to decline, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is still acceptable. The factory price has increased and the price has been increased.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has basically increased slightly, but has remained stable, with an overall load position of around 65%. The actual transaction level is still acceptable, but the buyer’s acceptance of the increased price has decreased, and the circulation speed of some sources of goods has been affected. The wait-and-see atmosphere for terminal stocking has increased, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 slicing has loosened.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market saw a significant increase in mid September. The price of caprolactam has risen strongly, and the cost support for PA6 has strengthened. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load, abundant supply, and inventory has been digested. In terms of demand, it is average, but downstream stocking enthusiasm is constrained by high prices. It is expected that the PA6 market may continue to be strong in the short term due to strong support from the cost side.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on September 8th was 5350 yuan/ton. On September 14th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5466 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 2.18% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, leading to an increase in cost-effectiveness. Under cost pressure, the price of chlorinated paraffin has increased. Downstream on-demand procurement, there has been no significant improvement on the demand side, and the overall market trading performance is average. As of September 14th, the environmentally friendly factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is around 6000 yuan/ton, while the national standard factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is around 5200-5600 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to rise this week, and after a significant increase, the trend began to slow down. Liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased this week, leading to a stronger market situation and increased market trading volume.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin believe that the recent trend in raw material prices is good, and the cost support for chlorinated paraffin is strong. However, terminal demand remains weak and market transactions are relatively low. It is expected that in the short term, the price of chlorinated paraffin will mainly be slightly adjusted and operated.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3025.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.54%. On September 11th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 96.03, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 64.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have slightly increased this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2750 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3000-3100 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2900 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market increased slightly this week, from 7450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7590.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.88%, and the weekend price decreased by 19.89% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly increased this week, rising from 5450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5600.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.75%. The weekend price decreased by 17.65% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream customers have a good demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have increased, and the market atmosphere is good. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, with primary demand for procurement. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market is fluctuating and rising. From September 4th to 11th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3776 yuan/ton to 3804 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75%, a month on month increase of 0.75%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.61%. Driven by international crude oil, the cost has significantly increased, leading to a rise in mainstream refinery prices. In addition, low price resources have decreased at the beginning of the month, resulting in an increase in high market prices and relatively firm prices. Some regions are in the stage of accelerating construction, and downstream terminal demand has been boosted, with significant price increases.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures prices have continued to rise, boosted by expectations of supply tightening due to prolonged production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, and coupled with the rise in US diesel futures, oil prices have rebounded. As of the close on September 8th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $90.65 per barrel, an increase of $0.73 or 0.8%.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demands from different regions. The overall demand is somewhat differentiated, with some projects in the northern region being supported, while the overall demand in the southern region is relatively flat. Some areas are affected by typhoons and road construction is hindered. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of September 11th, the oil asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2311 was opened at 3873 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3879 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3834 yuan/ton. It closed at 3858 yuan/ton in the end of the trading day, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 0.39% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 189013 lots, the position was 264406 lots, and the daily increase was -10458 lots.

In the future, it is predicted that international crude oil will fluctuate at high levels, with some support for asphalt costs. However, the overall resource supply is relatively high, and spot resources are relatively abundant. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly maintain stability in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8450 yuan/ton on September 4th, and the average price on September 8th was 8485 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.42%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on September 4th was 9600 yuan/ton, and the average price on September 8th was 9670 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.73%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9212 yuan/ton on September 4th, and the average price on September 8th was 9312 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 1.09%.

The overall increase in polyethylene prices this week is the main trend. The strong cost side oil price has a certain boosting effect on the price of polyethylene. This week, there were many temporary shutdowns of the equipment, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization and a slight decrease in supply; The peak season for greenhouse film demand is approaching, and demand is expected to increase; The operating rates of downstream products such as agricultural film and packaging film have shown an increasing trend.

Next week, there will be a start-up of enterprise equipment, and the expectation of polyethylene supply side will gradually increase; The peak season for greenhouse film demand is approaching, and the expected increase in demand has boosted market sentiment. It is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate slightly, but the upward space is limited.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in August was 1929.00 yuan/ton as of August 1st, 1939.00 yuan/ton as of August 31st, with a monthly increase of 0.52%.

On August 30th, the petroleum coke commodity index was 152.37, a decrease of 0.77 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022 May 11), and an increase of 127.79% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations.

On the supply side: In August, import traders were active in shipping, with fast shipping speed, and the inventory of imported petroleum coke ports decreased. The overall shipment of local refining petroleum coke is good, and currently the supply of petroleum coke in the refinery is relatively sufficient. The refinery is actively shipping, and the price of local refining petroleum coke is mixed.

On the demand side: Metal silicon rose by over 6% in August, and the overall market is fluctuating upwards. As of August 25th, there were 372 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall furnace opening rate of 51.03%. Construction in the northwest region has increased, but large factories in Xinjiang have failed to resume production as scheduled, resulting in low inventory pressure and multiple price increases. The southwest region has stable construction and sufficient supply, which can temporarily make up for the shortage of boiler shutdowns in Xinjiang. The operating rate of metal silicon continues to rise, and the demand for petroleum coke procurement continues to increase.

The overall market situation of medium to high calcined coke remained stable in August. With the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. In August, with the release of production capacity in the Yunnan region, there are still expectations of production capacity growth. The supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, leading to an increase in demand for petroleum coke. But towards the end of the month, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the graphite electrode and carburetor market, with a focus on restocking just in need.

Future forecast: Currently, the overall shipment of petroleum coke from Shandong refining is average, and downstream demand still exists. But towards the end of the month, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus, and some refineries’ shipments are under pressure. It is expected that the refining of petroleum coke in the near future will mainly undergo minor fluctuations and consolidation.

From August 25 to September 1, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased. The price was 79750 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 80250 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 0.63%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the trend of the antimony ingot market was relatively stable in April, and the overall market was weak in June. After 7 consecutive weeks of decline, it continued to rise for 5 consecutive weeks at the end of July.

The price of European strategic small metal antimony has slightly increased this week, reaching $11850/ton as of September 1st. This week, the price has slightly increased by $200/ton, indicating a wait-and-see market atmosphere.

This week, the antimony ingot market continued its upward trend, but the price continued to rise. However, the increase slowed down, with only an increase of 500 yuan/ton during the week. The changes in supply and demand were limited, and the performance remained weak in both supply and demand. Downstream demand remained weak, and the principle of on-demand procurement was maintained for antimony ingots, while there was still a shortage of demand. With the joint increase in prices by antimony ingot manufacturers, the antimony ingot market has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative increase of about 4000 yuan/ton. With the completion of downstream procurement, the mentality of the antimony ingot market has slightly recovered. The overseas market continued to rebound this week, with a range of $200 per ton. However, the market’s expectations for overseas demand are generally weak, and it is necessary to focus on August’s import and export data. Overall, the supply and demand in the antimony ingot market are weak, with refinery prices rising and antimony ingot prices rebounding. However, downstream demand is weak, and there is limited room for further upward growth in the future. It is expected to maintain a high consolidation operation in the short term.

 
This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, with limited growth in the antimony ingot market. The wait-and-see sentiment in the antimony oxide market was heavy, and overseas market expectations were weak. The overall market was weak this week. At present, the demand for antimony ingots in the antimony oxide market remains strong, and there is a weak intention to receive upstream goods, maintaining on-demand procurement.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1123 points on August 31, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 26.98% from the highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18) in the cycle, and an increase of 85.01% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Gold prices rose 1.43% in August

In August, the price of precious metal gold first fell and then rose, showing a “v” pattern. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot market price of gold on August 31, 2023 was 463.53 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.43% compared to the spot market price of 457 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (August 1).

Silver prices increased by 1.95%

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average silver market price on August 31, 2023 was 5929.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.95% compared to the average silver market price of 5816 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (August 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Macro news surface

In August, the number of new jobs added by ADP in the United States recorded 177000, the smallest increase in five months, lower than the expected 195000, and the previous value was 324000. The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States recorded 2.1%, lower than the expected 2.40%, and the previous value was 2.40%. The recent weakening of employment data has led the market to believe that future inflationary pressures may slow down, and the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates is expected to decrease. The data supports the relatively strong performance of precious metal prices in the near future; On the other hand, silver has been boosted by demand in the photovoltaic sector, and physical demand also has price support.

Fundamental data

The trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange on the previous trading day (August 30th) was 16586 kilograms, an increase of 37.01% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 565148 kilograms, an increase of 38.82% compared to the previous trading day.

The gold inventory of the previous exchange was 2592 kilograms, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver inventory increased by 10647 kilograms to 1373074 kilograms compared to the previous trading day.

The newly announced gold SPDR ETF position was 890.10 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous trading day. The position of silver SLV ETF was 13685.56 tons, a decrease of 99.83 tons compared to the previous trading day.

The global demand for gold in the first quarter was mixed, with a year-on-year decrease of 13%. The total demand for silver in 2023 is expected to decline by 6% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.

The US economic data is poor, and expectations for interest rate hikes continue to cool. The RMB continued to depreciate in August, supporting the sustained strength of domestic precious metal RMB prices. In the short term, the price of precious metals may fluctuate strongly and operate mainly