This week, the market for epichlorohydrin has remained stable with minor fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 17th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% compared to Monday’s price.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, the recent domestic propylene (Shandong) market has experienced narrow fluctuations, with stable prices of raw materials such as glycerol. The cost side is generally supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

Supply and demand side: The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side has decreased, and the tight spot supply situation has continued to provide some support to the market. Downstream wait-and-see for bargains is still necessary to follow up, but the demand side is still weak. The main downstream epoxy resin has been affected by the weak supply and demand since November, and the market continues to decline. There is insufficient support for the epichlorohydrin market. According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, on November 16, the reference price of epoxy resin was 13433.33, Compared to November 1st (13933.33), it decreased by 3.59%.

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that in the short term, some devices may restart or meet expectations, but market supply support still exists and demand may still be weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8733.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8616.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34%. The price has increased by 6.05% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has declined. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has fluctuated slightly in the past month, with a slight decline in the market this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, with poor cost support. Downstream demand has not improved, and spot transactions of styrene have been weak, causing market volatility to decline.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week, with weaker purchasing intentions from downstream customers and sluggish spot transactions. The pure benzene market continued to decline. The main listing has been lowered, and the Shandong Refinery’s quotation continues to decline. After the price drop, traders took advantage of bargains to purchase and deliver orders within the week, resulting in a warmer transaction.

In terms of downstream market, the three major downstream markets of styrene have fluctuated. The domestic PS market continues to decline, with a range of 80-100 yuan/ton. The significant decline in crude oil has driven down pure benzene and styrene, and the price of PS ordinary materials has also fallen, with a temporary decrease less than that of the upstream. Merchants mainly sell at a profit margin and negotiate with actual orders, with some low level transactions.

The EPS market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 10125.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials. Upstream support has weakened, with a focus on market transactions. Terminal profits are meager, and buying follow-up is limited. Overall, the transaction is average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market. Buying is mainly on demand.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has experienced slight fluctuations, and the high load in the ABS industry has continued. As of the end of last week, the average weekly operating rate was around 72%. The production of the enterprise is stable, with a slight increase in weekly total production and a significant increase in inventory positions. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the profitability of the enterprise is poor. The drag on the spot market by the supply side has expanded, resulting in high supply pressure. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term, or it will maintain a weak consolidation market.

Recently, Russia and Saudi Arabia have reduced production, international oil prices have slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. In the near future, styrene supply may weaken, and under the dual positive situation, it is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will be mainly higher.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8228 yuan/ton on November 1, and the average price on November 10 was 8268 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.49%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9112 yuan/ton on November 1, and the average price on November 10 was 9175 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.69% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8650 yuan/ton on November 1, and the average price on November 10 was 8637 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.14% during the period.

Starting from November, the price of polyethylene has fluctuated, lacking effective benefits, and the space for polyethylene to rise is limited. Worried about the global economic outlook, the international crude oil market has declined, and the cost side support for polyethylene is insufficient. Polyethylene prices were relatively low in October, and companies began to have a slight upward trend in early November. There is a trend of upward pricing, but there is little room for upward growth. Some companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude and offer stable prices. The demand in the agricultural film market is flat, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, with cautious procurement and insufficient follow-up on new orders.

On November 10th, the polyethylene l2401 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8177 yuan and closed at 8162 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan or 0.11%.

After November, the peak season for agricultural film has ended, and the demand side’s boost is limited; Enterprise parking and maintenance have decreased compared to the previous period, and there is still pressure on the supply of polyethylene products. Fundamentals are expected to be empty, and polyethylene may be mainly weak due to fluctuations, with insufficient upward mobility.

The price of plasticizer DOP rebounded in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the price of DOP was 11450 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.00% compared to the price of 11225 yuan/ton on November 1st. Strong support for raw materials, weak downstream demand remains, and DOP prices fluctuated and rose in November.

The price of isooctanol first fell and then rose

According to the quotations from major isooctanol manufacturers, it can be seen that the price of isooctanol continued to decline last week, with major isooctanol manufacturers’ quotations plummeting. This week, the prices of isooctanol manufacturers stopped falling and rebounded. On November 8th, the prices of isooctanol surged, with some isooctanol manufacturers experiencing a surge of 600 yuan/ton. Propylene prices have rebounded and surged, while the cost of isooctanol has increased. Downstream plasticizer companies have not started production enough, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In November, the price of isooctanol fell first and then rose.

The price of phthalic anhydride stabilizes after falling

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on November 1st. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride remains at 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. The price of industrial naphthalene has increased, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price difference between ortho phthalic anhydride and nefa phthalic anhydride is approaching, and the market for ortho phthalic anhydride is favorable. The price of phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the raw material isooctanol first fell and then rose, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after falling, and the cost of plasticizers increased; The plastic market has declined, downstream customers have poor purchasing enthusiasm, and downstream demand for plasticizers remains weak. In the future, cost support is difficult to sustain, and demand remains weak. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and consolidate in a weak manner.

Product name: Sulfuric acid

Latest price (November 6th): 262.00 yuan/ton

On November 6th, the domestic sulfuric acid market price slightly increased, with a price increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to November 3rd, an increase of 1.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 35.78%. The upstream sulfur market has recently slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream monoammonium phosphate market has slightly increased, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Duo Zhong Li is good, but the sulfuric acid market has slightly increased.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price may continue to rise slightly, with an average market price of around 270 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of PS at the beginning of this week was 9650 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS at the weekend was 9733 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.86% and a decrease of 4.89% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic PS market saw a slight increase, with a range of 30-150 yuan/ton. The raw material styrene is subject to strong vibration, resulting in increased cost pressure. Some devices in East and South China have recovered, with slight growth in industry production, and some supply sources have tightened due to production cuts. The mainstream market price reference for GPPS in South China is 9120 yuan/ton. (excluding taxes)

3、 Future Market Forecast

The cost increases, and it is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) price may mainly increase slightly.

In October, the price trend of domestic fluorite continued to rise. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3750 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.63% compared to the initial price of 3550 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 18.81%.

Supply side: mine safety inspection, shortage of fluorite in stock

In October, the gaming situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining accidents have occurred in some areas, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. Some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, which has increased the difficulty of operating fluorite mines, The shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, making it difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations. The spot supply of fluorite is tight, and the increase in fluorite is mainly concentrated in the early ten days. In the late ten days, the upstream and downstream game intensifies, and the fluorite market has slightly declined.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the starting point of refrigerants is low

In October, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid increased. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed by various regions in China was 11400-11800 yuan/ton, and the increase in hydrofluoric acid in October was 8.03%. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is relatively normal. The rise in hydrofluoric acid prices to some extent supports the upward trend of the fluorite market. In addition, as winter storage approaches, the news surface supports the upward trend of fluorite prices in October.

The market for downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market has slightly increased, but the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to be followed up, and some enterprises’ quotas are digested in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly stable. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end offers have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000 to 27000 yuan/ton. The demand for the refrigerant industry in the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat, which to some extent suppresses the increase in fluorite.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future Market Forecast: It is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines in the near future, and some mines have stopped production to undergo safety inspections. However, the purchasing sentiment of hydrofluoric acid enterprises is poor, and the upstream and downstream game situation is intensifying. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the upward trend of fluorite in the future will be hindered, and fluorite prices may slightly decrease.

In October, the market for chloroform rose first and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 31, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In the first half of the month, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated at a high level, while the price of liquid chlorine remained high, with strong support for the cost of chloroform; In addition, the news of equipment maintenance at a certain factory in Shandong Province in the middle of the month has stimulated a significant increase in the factory price of enterprises, and the price of chloroform has significantly increased in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, on the one hand, the high prices of raw materials have fallen, and the cost support for trichloromethane has weakened. In addition, terminal and market merchants have little willingness to stock up and inquire more on demand, resulting in light market transactions. In the face of demand for trichloromethane, support continues to weaken, and enterprise factory prices have been lowered, leading to a decline in the high prices of trichloromethane.

At the beginning of the month, methane chloride production started at 7.8%, and at the end of the month, methane chloride production fell back to 7.3%. Under the weak demand pattern, there is still pressure on the supply side of trichloromethane.

In October, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and decreased, while the overall price of liquid chlorine declined. The cost support for trichloromethane was strong in the early stage and weakened in the later stage. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.92% from 2478 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak during the cycle was 2510 yuan/ton; At the beginning of October, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 600 yuan/ton, and in the second half of the month, the lowest price dropped to 200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the price was 300 yuan/ton.

The overall operation of refrigerant R22 is stable, and in the short term, there are more inquiries on demand for trichloromethane. Support for trichloromethane has slightly weakened, and the total production quota of R22 has been reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. In the medium to long term, overall support for trichloromethane demand has weakened.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that in the short term, demand for trichloromethane is weak, coupled with a high drop in raw material prices, and it is expected that the market for trichloromethane will be weak in the short term. From a medium to long term perspective, under the condition of no strong cost support for trichloromethane, the market will basically show a trend of range fluctuations and consolidation due to demand constraints

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC fell in October. On October 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5986 yuan/ton, while on October 30th, the average price was 5854 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.21% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC fell in October. After the National Day holiday in early this month, futures prices opened at a low price, and the futures market weakened slightly. The market confidence in the two markets was significantly insufficient, and PVC spot prices were lowered. In the middle of the year, the upstream calcium carbide market prices significantly declined, and the futures market weakened more. The trading atmosphere on the market was weak, and people were cautious and cautious. The PVC spot market lacked confidence, and prices were lowered. In the latter half of the year, there has been a rebound in both markets, with a slight increase in spot market prices. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is generally average, with purchases mainly on demand and ready to use. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5700-5870 yuan/ton.

On October 27th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $85.54 per barrel, an increase of $2.33 or 2.8%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 89.20 yuan/barrel, an increase of 2.15 US dollars or 2.5%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in October, with the price of calcium carbide dropping from 2966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.69%. Looking at the future market: In mid to early November, the calcium carbide market may slightly decline, with consolidation being the main focus. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, leading to a weakening of downstream demand. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early November, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell in October, with average cost support. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, and actual transactions are limited, with most enterprises mainly focusing on stability and wait-and-see. It is expected that the PVC market may continue to fluctuate within the range in the short term, and closely monitor changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, overall yellow phosphorus market prices rose in October. On October 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25522.67 yuan/ton, and on October 27th, it was 25960 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 1.71%.

2、 Market analysis

Overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus increased in October. In the first ten days of October, the overall market turnover of yellow phosphorus was fairly good. The price of upstream phosphate rock rose, the cost support was awesome, and the market price was temporarily stabilized. In the middle of the year, the yellow phosphorus market fell first and then rose, with an overall upward trend. There are many downstream inquiries, making it difficult to purchase at a lower price, with manufacturers mainly pushing prices. In the latter half of the year, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased, and downstream demand was poor. The market pressed down on procurement, and the focus of price transactions gradually shifted downwards. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is around 26000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, on October 27th, the market price of 30 grade phosphate ore once again exceeded the thousand yuan mark, with a reference price of around 1024 yuan/ton. Compared to early October, the monthly increase was 5.57%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphorus ore market is mild, and the supply side will continue to provide some support to the market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly continue to operate at a high and strong level, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of coke was temporarily stable in October 2023. On October 27th, the ex factory price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi region was 2196.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as at the beginning of the month. In terms of supply, the shutdown plan for the 4.3 meter coke oven in Shanxi region has begun to be implemented, affecting the operation of local coke enterprises. The regional supply of coke is tight, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined this week. In terms of demand, the recent poor performance of finished product prices has led to a slight decline in steel plant operations. Some enterprises may have maintenance plans and maintain a just needed replenishment of coke. Some enterprises with high inventory in the factory have started to control coke procurement, leading to a weaker mentality among coke companies and a weakening market mentality. Overall, the supply and demand in the coke market are weak, and the mentality of coke companies is expected to weaken. The market is expected to remain temporarily stable in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid on October 1st was 7140 yuan/ton, and the average price on October 27th was 7220 yuan/ton. The price increased by 1.12% during the month. This month, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated and increased, with acceptable support for raw materials, leading to an increase in the price of thermal phosphoric acid. However, downstream demand is weak, and some dealers have not made any adjustments for shipment, resulting in limited growth in phosphoric acid. With the improvement of the yellow phosphorus market, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will consolidate and operate.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the market price of yellow phosphorus increased in October. At present, the market trading situation is average, and the market is purchasing at a low price. However, the upstream phosphate rock price has increased, and the raw materials are under pressure. The willingness of yellow phosphorus manufacturers to increase prices is also strong, and there is a game between upstream and downstream, with many businesses watching and waiting. Overall, it is expected that the price range of yellow phosphorus market will fluctuate and operate in the short term, and the actual transaction will be negotiated.