According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 16, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8650 yuan/ton. Compared with January 10 (reference price of n-butanol was 8966 yuan/ton), the price increased by 316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that as we enter this week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province has shown a weak downward trend. This week, some regions in China have gradually resumed operation of n-butanol plants, and the overall supply of n-butanol plants has increased. The support provided by the supply side to the n-butanol market has weakened. Downstream demand for n-butanol is mostly manifested as rigid demand stocking, and the contradiction between n-butanol supply and demand has become apparent. Therefore, some factories are under pressure to reduce the shipment price of n-butanol, with a cumulative reduction of 200-400 yuan/ton in two days. As of January 16th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is average, with new orders mainly being small orders in demand. The transmission of supply and demand on the market is relatively slow, and some factories are actively shipping to ensure low inventory. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week, the lead market (1.8-1.15) rose first and then fell. The average price in the domestic market was 15970 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 16085 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 0.72%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, the Shanghai lead price rose first and then fell during the cycle. The tight supply situation on the mining end in terms of supply and demand has not been effectively improved. The overall production of primary lead is relatively stable this week, while the supply of raw materials and waste batteries for recycled lead is still tight, and the production of recycled lead is still low. Due to various factors, the overall supply of lead ingots remains tight. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream market is generally operating at a higher rate, and the recent battery operating rate has significantly increased. The demand for pre holiday stocking has been relaxed, and downstream purchases have actively entered the market, resulting in a significant decline in lead ingot inventory. Overall, there is still a demand for stocking during the Spring Festival, and there is still a demand for replenishing inventory in the downstream in the short term. It is expected that the market will remain stable and tend to be strong.

Related data:

On January 14th, the lead commodity index was 99.29, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.91% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 33.04% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On January 14th, the base metal index was 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 14th, the non-ferrous index was at 1096 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 80.56% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the second week of 2024 (1.8-1.12), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were nickel (3.90%), antimony (3.25%), and lead (2.16%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 4 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were dysprosium iron alloy (-14.09%), dysprosium oxide (-13.71%), and metallic dysprosium (-13.33%). The average increase and decrease this week is -2.45%.

Price trend

The domestic EVA market is in a stalemate, and spot prices are in a dilemma of rising and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11433.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The price of EVA in the domestic market has remained stable and fluctuated slightly this week. On the supply side, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises has significantly decreased, and the operating rate has been lowered to around 78%, leading to a tightening of market supply. The petrochemical plant is operating at a high price, and merchants are attempting to quote higher prices. The EVA supplier’s support for spot goods is still acceptable.

The demand side of EVA performed average this week. The low-end offer and transaction situation on the market is good, and the overall stock preparation and follow-up of downstream enterprises are still good. The buying logic of the buyer camp remains unchanged, and there is resistance to high priced sources. The price is pulled by markets from different directions and operates in a stalemate.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA price fell to the market equilibrium point this week and the market remained stagnant. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has been reduced, and downstream demand is still acceptable. The confidence of business owners is supported by the high prices of petrochemical plants. However, as the end of the year approaches, the expectation for increased consumption in the future is relatively low, and it is expected that the EVA market may remain stagnant and consolidating in the short term.

Recently (1.1-1.9), the price of isooctyl acrylate has risen. According to data from Business Society, as of January 9th, the average price of isooctyl acrylate in East China was 13425 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The reference price for the East China market is 14500 yuan/ton; The reference price for the North China market is 14600 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the South China market is 14700 yuan/ton;

Market Review of Isooctyl Acrylate

Recently, the price of isooctyl acrylate has risen significantly, and the market for isooctyl acrylate is mainly affected by the rise in raw materials. The price of raw material butanol has risen, and the cost of isooctyl acrylate manufacturers has increased. The market price support has strengthened, but the downstream transmission speed of traditional off-season terminals is still slow.

Expected future market for isooctyl acrylate

In the short term, the pace of pushing up the price of isooctyl acrylate is gradually slowing down, and the follow-up of actual orders is weak. Intermediaries are gradually firming up from their quotations. Analysts from Business Society believe that isooctyl acrylate may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, while in the long term, the supply of isooctyl acrylate may gradually slow down due to demand before the Spring Festival. It is recommended that traders operate cautiously.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the PP market has recently experienced a decline in prices, with prices of various wire drawing brands decreasing. As of January 8th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7628.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -0.28% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the news of OPEC’s reduction in international crude oil production has supported the market, coupled with recent local tension in shipping, leading to price recovery and increase. Propylene has been boosted by crude oil, with prices rising accordingly. PDH is also driven by the energy sector, with cost support rising. The methanol market is relatively stable. The upstream raw materials are generally improving, and the overall support for PP is still acceptable.

The raw materials in all directions tend to be stronger, and the cost side supports PP more strongly. In terms of industry load, the average load of the polypropylene industry was around 73% last week, a narrow increase compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods is abundant, and the inventory situation has increased, leading to increased pressure on on-site supply. In terms of demand, downstream plastic weaving production is maintained at below 40%, while the production rates of film materials and injection molding enterprises are maintained at around 65% and 59%, with an overall decline in position. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations in purchasing goods, with poor trading activity on the exchange and an overall weak market for wire drawing materials.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of January 8th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7612.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.81% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.45% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen a narrow decrease in load, with an operating rate of over 38%. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and the demand for fiber materials in the market is relatively weak, which lacks support for the price of non-woven fabrics. It is expected that there will be no breakthrough in downstream procurement before the holiday, and fibers may continue to be weakly sorted.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has seen a narrow increase this week. As of January 8th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8062.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.15%, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.26%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the impact of winter climate on the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significant. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. In addition, downstream factories have entered a pre holiday mode, resulting in a decrease in overall operating rates. It is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to be weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market fluctuated and fell last week. The trend of upstream raw materials is good, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. Terminal enterprises generally start construction, while purchasing operations maintain weak and rigid demand. The load of PP equipment has slightly decreased, but there has been an accumulation of inventory and an increase in supply pressure. At present, PP is still in a weak supply-demand pattern, with insufficient market buying. It is expected that the PP market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DBP stabilized after falling this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 5th, the DBP price was 9675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the DBP price of 9750 yuan/ton on December 29th. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials n-butanol and isooctanol first rose and then fell. DBP cost support still exists, DBP enterprise operating rates have decreased, downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased, and DBP prices have fallen after the holiday.

The price of isooctanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12962.50 yuan/ton, which was a decrease and then an increase of 0.10% compared to the price of isooctanol on December 29th, which was 12950 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers has fallen, and large plasticizer factories have a strong demand for procurement. The transaction of isooctanol is poor, and the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient. After the holiday, the main manufacturers of isooctanol have offered discounts for sales, but the price of isooctanol has fallen. As DBP enterprises start operating lower, DBP prices have risen, and the support for the rise of isooctanol still exists.

The price of n-butanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of n-butanol was 8716.67 yuan/ton, which decreased first and then increased compared to December 29th when the price of n-butanol was 8700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.19%. At the beginning of the week, the trading atmosphere on the n-butanol exchange was light, with limited transactions. The n-butanol market was weakly declining, and the n-butanol factory quotation was lowered. During the mid week period, some devices in the n-butanol plant were shut down for maintenance, and downstream demand for n-butanol improved. The inquiry atmosphere in the plant warmed up, and the n-butanol market began to decline before rebounding. The overall market price returned to the beginning of the week and slightly increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials: after the holiday, the prices of n-butanol and isooctanol first fell and then rose, and DBP raw material cost support still exists. In the future, n-butanol and isooctanol are expected to remain stable and strong, while plasticizer cost support still exists. DBP supply is decreasing and demand is weak. It is expected that DBP prices will remain stable and strong in the future.

Zinc prices continue to rise in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the zinc price was 21588 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.92% from the zinc price of 20774 yuan/ton on December 1st; From December 13th to December 26th, zinc prices rose continuously, with a growth rate of 3.42%. The macroeconomic data is positive, and the supply of zinc in the market is limited. Zinc prices fluctuated and rose in December.

Macro data is positive

According to S&P’s global market intelligence data, the initial PMI for the Markit service industry in the United States in December was 51.3, reaching a new high since July. The initial value of Markit’s manufacturing PMI in the United States fell to 48.2 in December. This is the lowest number since August this year. The Markit service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI in the United States reached new highs since July in December, while the manufacturing industry PMI shrank. The US economy slightly rebounded in December, ending the year at its fastest growth rate since July. On December 13th local time, the Federal Reserve held a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to discuss interest rates and issued a statement that the current rate hike cycle may have ended and the rate cut cycle is about to begin: the Federal Reserve will have three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut signal has boosted market enthusiasm and brought macroeconomic benefits; In December, the US dollar index continued to decline significantly, with metals denominated in the US dollar being cheaper for holders of other currencies. The non-ferrous metal market was positive, and non-ferrous metals generally rose.

Expected decrease in zinc supply in the market

The sanctions imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, a subsidiary of the US Department of Commerce, have made Russian mining giant Sviblov the latest business person to be blacklisted. Another company affected by the Sviblov sanctions is Ozernoye, which is developing one of the world’s largest zinc mines. The mine is expected to account for 4% of global production. Affected by sanctions, the expected supply of zinc in the market has decreased, leading to an increase in zinc prices.

On December 21st, Myra Falls, a subsidiary of Tok, announced that it will close the mine and beneficiation plant due to increased operating costs and accept long-term maintenance. The zinc production of the mine is about 30000 metal tons per year. It is estimated that these mines will continue to bring a reduction of 154600 metal tons next year, accounting for 1.29% of the global zinc ore supply.

Due to weather conditions, mines in northern China have gradually experienced seasonal production reductions, with a shutdown period of about 4-5 months. The overall impact on production is 55000 metal tons, compared to 47000 metal tons in the same period last year. The expected decrease in domestic zinc ore production and the expected decrease in zinc market supply.

Weak demand for zinc in the market

Environmental protection and production restrictions have reappeared in the northern region, and the commencement of galvanizing has declined; There is no significant increase in zinc oxide orders, and overall production has shrunk; The number of new orders for die-casting zinc alloy has declined, and the impact of domestic cold waves has led to a decline in infrastructure and real estate construction. Terminal demand has entered a seasonal off-season, and downstream demand for zinc ingots has declined.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, macro economic data in the United States has rebounded, with the US dollar index falling in December and non-ferrous metals generally rising; In terms of supply, the United States has imposed sanctions on Russia, resulting in a reduction in the production of Tok Group’s zinc mine and a phased reduction in domestic zinc mine production, leading to an expected decrease in zinc mine supply; The impact of environmental protection and seasonal off-season has led to weak demand for zinc in the market. In the future, there has been an oversupply of zinc ore in recent months, and the overall zinc market is still oversupplied. The supply of zinc ore has continued to decrease in the past 24 years. With the end of the seasonal off-season, the demand for zinc in the market will eventually rebound. The weak zinc market in January is still expected, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate slightly. With the end of the seasonal off-season in the zinc market, the expectation for medium and long-term zinc prices to rebound and rise.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on December 29, 2023 was 19593.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.93% compared to the aluminum price of 18673.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (December 1).

In the long run, the current price is at a high level in the range of sideways fluctuations. Since May, it has been fluctuating below 19000 yuan/ton, and by the end of August, it has exceeded 19000 yuan/ton. In September, aluminum prices first fell and then rose. In October, the center of gravity of aluminum prices fell back to around 19000 yuan/ton and fluctuated. In November, aluminum prices were weak and began to recover after mid December, standing above 19000 yuan/ton.

Observing downstream demand in the future market

In the short term, the supply of bauxite is relatively scarce. In addition, the heavy pollution weather range in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei and surrounding areas is from December 22, 2023 to January 4, 2024, and some areas may continue to support the cost of electrolytic aluminum due to weather difficulties and transportation difficulties, resulting in tight supply of goods.

The bearish factor lies in downstream consumption. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises in the Central Plains region is expected to decrease. Recently, processing enterprises in Henan Province have experienced a decline in production due to environmental control measures. The mainstream consumer area in Henan is facing production restrictions due to environmental protection, and coupled with the off-season of consumption, there is an expectation of significant accumulation of aluminum inventory in the future. Fortunately, according to the data from the social inventory, it is in a low inventory state. As of December 25th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China was 414000 tons, with 149000 tons of inventory removed compared to November 30th. Based on year-on-year data, it is at a low level in the same period of nearly five years.

Future market forecast

The strong price of alumina may continue, and cost support may strengthen. But currently, aluminum prices are also rising rapidly, digesting some of the positive news; Gradually entering the downstream consumption off-season, fortunately, the current social inventory of aluminum ingots remains low, providing some support for aluminum prices, but the upward space is narrowing.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has fluctuated narrowly recently (12.18-12.28). On December 28th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6530 yuan/ton, and on December 18th, the benchmark price was 6510 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31%.

International crude oil prices have rebounded compared to the previous period, and there is short-term support for the cost of toluene

Recently (12.18-12.28), international crude oil prices have rebounded compared to the previous period, providing short-term support for the cost of toluene. As of December 27th, WTI02 contract settlement is 74.11 yuan/barrel; Brent 03 contract settlement is $79.54 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of late December, the construction of refinery facilities nationwide is around 70%.

Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance and spot supply is normal. This week, international crude oil prices have risen, and PX prices have slightly increased due to this impact. As of the 21st, the closing prices in Asia are 992-994 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1017-1019 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. PX supply in the Asian region is normal, and crude oil prices have slightly increased recently. The domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable.

The rebound in external market prices has slightly eased the supply of toluene compared to the previous period

On the one hand, with a slight rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia has rebounded. As of December 27th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price in January was between 839-841 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, the domestic production of toluene and the slight decline in port inventory have eased the pressure on the supply of toluene slightly. As of December 21st, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 40000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 13000 tons.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating widely, with support for the cost of toluene; The demand support for industries such as downstream mixing of toluene is relatively weak, and although the supply side has slightly decreased in the short term, the port inventory base is still relatively large. It is expected that the toluene market will experience a weak consolidation in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7000 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton on December 27th. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 5.71%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6833 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 6450 yuan/ton on December 27th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price has dropped by 5.61%.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of phosphoric acid market has declined this month. In the first half of December, the price of phosphoric acid in the market slightly decreased. The prices of raw materials such as phosphate ore and yellow phosphorus have been lowered, weakening cost support. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and market trading is limited. The company’s quotation has been lowered, and transactions are mainly negotiated on a single basis. In the second half of December, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fell again. The raw material yellow phosphorus market continues to weaken, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. The market demand is sluggish, trading is weak, and enterprise quotations have been lowered, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. As of December 27th, the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6100-6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6300-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 5400-7150 yuan/ton.

The price of yellow phosphorus fell significantly in December, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was light. In the first half of the year, the downstream market was relatively weak and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods was low. Downstream enterprises continued to be cautious in their procurement and made purchases at lower prices. As a result, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market gradually decreased. In the middle of the month, yellow phosphorus enterprises are cautious in their quotations, issuing more preliminary orders and not quoting external prices for new orders. The price of yellow phosphorus in the market is relatively chaotic, with both high-end and low-end prices coexisting. In the latter half of the year, the market operating rate has decreased, and some yellow phosphorus enterprises have suspended external quotations. However, downstream demand is poor, prices are lowered for procurement, and traders and downstream buyers are less proactive in purchasing goods. The center of gravity of the on-site market continues to decline. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable and consolidated after a slight decline this month. At the beginning of the month, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable overall, and the supply and demand news on the market was relatively calm. As the mid month stage approaches, downstream demand for phosphate ore has weakened, and some regions have a mediocre shipping pace. In the early stage, mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore by a narrow margin, while the price of 30% grade phosphate ore has decreased by about 20-30 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low prices on site has narrowed. At the end of the month, due to the overall tight supply of mid to high end grade phosphate ore, although downstream demand is weak, the phosphate ore market still shows a stable operation after a slight decline. As of December 27th, the domestic phosphate ore market price is based on around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market has been downward. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to decline, with insufficient cost support. The terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is essential. The market is mainly bearish. Under the influence of bearish factors, it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will operate weakly